278
ACUS11 KWNS 192046
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 192046
SDZ000-NDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-192245-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1724
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0346 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 192046Z - 192245Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT
SUMMARY...A GRADUAL INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY IS
EXPECTED THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. THE PRIMARY CONCERNS WILL BE LARGE
HAIL AND SEVERE WIND GUSTS. A WATCH SHOULD EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED FOR
PARTS OF THE AREA.
DISCUSSION...BOUNDARY-LAYER CUMULUS IS GRADUALLY DEEPENING ALONG THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON, WHERE LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
CONTINUE TO STEEPEN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MIDLEVEL TROUGH. OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS, WEAK MIDLEVEL HEIGHT FALLS AND CONTINUED
DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD SUPPORT WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WHICH
WILL SPREAD EASTWARD INTO AN INCREASINGLY MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR MASS.
AROUND 40-50 KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL PROMOTE SUPERCELLS AND
ORGANIZED CLUSTERS, CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL
AND SEVERE GUSTS. A TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH ANY
SUPERCELLS THAT EVOLVE OVER EASTERN MT INTO THIS EVENING, GIVEN
SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPH CURVATURE. GENERALLY WEAK LARGE-SCALE
FORCING FOR ASCENT AND LINGERING LOW-LEVEL INHIBITION CAST
UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT/MATURATION, THOUGH
CURRENT THINKING IS A WATCH WILL EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED FOR PARTS OF
THE AREA.
..WEINMAN/SMITH.. 07/19/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...BIS...UNR...CYS...BYZ...GGW...
LAT...LON 43200293 43100352 43160400 43570466 44550579 46720726
47690780 48420792 48960766 49070729 49090504 48970465
48440418 43660252 43200293
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page