030
ACUS11 KWNS 192149
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 192149
KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-192345-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1725
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0449 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...FAR EAST-CENTRAL COLORADO...NORTHWEST KANSAS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 192149Z - 192345Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A
COUPLE OF CLUSTERS OF SUPERCELLS MOVING INTO/THROUGH NORTHWEST
KANSAS. A WATCH IS POSSIBLE SHOULD CONVECTIVE TRENDS WARRANT.
DISCUSSION...STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO ALONG A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH/DRYLINE. STRONG SURFACE HEATING HAS PROMOTED
2000-3000 J/KG MLCAPE. SHEAR INCREASES WITH NORTHERN EXTENT NEAR THE
KANSAS/NEBRASKA BORDER. THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT AT
LEAST ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON.
THE NEED FOR A WATCH IS UNCERTAIN IN THIS SCENARIO. LARGE-SCALE
ASCENT IS QUITE WEAK AND DEWPOINT SPREADS AT THE SURFACE ARE RATHER
LARGE. THIS MAY LEAD TO GENERALLY OUTFLOW DOMINANT STORMS THAT ARE
INTENSE FOR A SHORT PERIOD. THIS IS EVIDENT IN KGLD RADAR IMAGERY
WITH STORMS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-70. STORMS NEAR THE NEBRASKA BORDER
MAY BE MORE ORGANIZED FOR LONGER GIVEN THE GREATER EFFECTIVE SHEAR
(APPROACHING 40-45 KTS). THE PROBABILITY OF A WATCH IS SLIGHTLY
HIGHER THERE FOR THAT REASON. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
..WENDT/HART.. 07/19/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...GID...DDC...GLD...PUB...
LAT...LON 39090008 38500086 38200187 38360239 38890277 39340289
39770229 40120153 40250010 39919984 39090008
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
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