406  
ACUS11 KWNS 200212  
SWOMCD  
SPC MCD 200211  
SDZ000-NDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-200315-  
 
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1732  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
0911 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2025  
 
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF EASTERN MONTANA...NORTHEAST  
WYOMING...SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA  
 
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 528...  
 
VALID 200211Z - 200315Z  
 
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 528  
CONTINUES.  
 
SUMMARY...THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WATCH  
AREA, WITH LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL, AND STRONG/DAMAGING GUSTS AS  
THE PRIMARY SEVERE HAZARDS.  
 
DISCUSSION...REGIONAL RADAR COMPOSITE AT 0205Z SHOWS THREE AREAS OF  
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WATCH AREA AND IN THE GENERAL  
VICINITY OF A NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST ORIENTED BOUNDARY/INSTABILITY  
GRADIENT. ONE AREA OF STORMS HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED/STRENGTHENED  
OVER NORTHEAST MT, WHERE SUBTLE ASCENT FROM AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE  
TROUGH CONTINUES TO CONTRIBUTE TO STORM DEVELOPMENT. SEVERE STORMS  
OVER EAST-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST MT HAVE BEGUN TO EVOLVE INTO A SMALL  
CLUSTER, WHILE STORMS OVER WESTERN SD REMAIN MORE ISOLATED.  
 
THE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE WATCH AREA REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE  
WITH MLCAPE OF 1500-2000 J/KG, AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 40-50 KTS.  
THESE STORMS WERE ALSO ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A PLUME OF  
STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THESE  
STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE GENERALLY EAST ACROSS THE WATCH AREA  
THROUGH 06Z AND POSE A CONTINUED RISK FOR LARGE/ISOLATED VERY LARGE  
HAIL WITH THE MORE DISCRETE CELLS AND DAMAGING GUSTS.  
 
..BUNTING.. 07/20/2025  
   
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
 
 
ATTN...WFO...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW...  
 
LAT...LON 43120306 43740428 46320563 47400658 48620706 49060657  
49050603 48990504 48830452 46970278 45990201 43340221  
43120306  
 
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH  
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH  
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN  
 
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