432  
ACUS11 KWNS 201801  
SWOMCD  
SPC MCD 201801  
MAZ000-NHZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-VTZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-202000-  
 
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1736  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
0101 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2025  
 
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA INTO NEW  
JERSEY...SOUTHERN NEW YORK...AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND  
 
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE  
 
VALID 201801Z - 202000Z  
 
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT  
 
SUMMARY...SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, PRIMARILY CAPABLE OF  
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, ARE ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE  
EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND INTO EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA,  
SOUTHERN NEW YORK, AND NEW JERSEY. THOUGH THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY  
IN THE DEGREE OF CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION AND EVOLUTION, A SEVERE  
THUNDERSTORM WATCH COULD BE WARRANTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON.  
 
DISCUSSION...SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS SHOW CONVECTION DEVELOPING  
ACROSS PA INTO NY IN AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE  
BUOYANCY (~1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE) AND STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR (40-45  
KT 0-6KM). THOUGH DEEP CONVECTION HAS YET TO FORM, IT IS ANTICIPATED  
THAT AS DAYTIME HEATING AND MIXING CONTINUES, THE ENVIRONMENT WILL  
SUPPORT STRONG, ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM UPDRAFTS.  
 
GIVEN LONG, STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS AND APPRECIABLE 0-1 KM LAPSE RATES  
APPROACHING 8 C/KM, ALONG WITH SEASONABLY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER  
CONTENT APPROACHING 2.00 INCHES, THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE FOR  
DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS OF 55-70 MPH WITHIN THUNDERSTORM  
DOWNDRAFTS. HAIL OR A BRIEF TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH ANY  
STRONGER, ISOLATED ORGANIZED CONVECTION THAT OCCURS, THOUGH  
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES DO NOT SUGGEST THAT THEY  
ARE LIKELY AT THIS TIME.  
 
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MAY BE NEEDED LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS  
CONVECTIVE TRENDS CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.  
 
..HALBERT/SMITH.. 07/20/2025  
   
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
 
 
ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...  
 
LAT...LON 42977429 43247363 43327321 43377270 43217212 42927176  
42517159 41997157 41567178 41257213 40967271 40687355  
40577420 40477470 40647520 40957580 41247601 41777616  
41997617 42027613 42467539 42707483 42757473 42977429  
 
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH  
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH  
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN  
 
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