364
ACUS11 KWNS 202145
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 202145
SDZ000-NDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-202315-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1739
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0445 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN MT/FAR NORTHEAST WY/WESTERN ND/WESTERN SD
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 202145Z - 202315Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT
SUMMARY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE INITIALLY
ACROSS EAST/SOUTHEAST MONTANA AND POSSIBLY FAR NORTHEAST WYOMING
INTO THE FAR WESTERN DAKOTAS THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
DISCUSSION...STORMS HAVE SHOWN RECENT SIGNS OF INTENSIFICATION
WITHIN A SEMI-MOIST/MODERATELY UNSTABLE CORRIDOR FROM EAST-CENTRAL
MONTANA INTO SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA, WITH ADDITIONAL TOWERING CU
NOTED IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY ACROSS SOUTHEAST MONTANA. THE
REGION IS BEING INFLUENCED BY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER
ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN AND A RELATED BELT OF LOW-AMPLITUDE WESTERLIES,
CONTRIBUTING TO 40+ KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR. SCENARIO WILL SUPPORT AT
LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT INCLUDING SOME INITIAL
SUPERCELLS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE-CALIBER WIND
GUSTS. CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WATCH.
..GUYER/HART.. 07/20/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW...
LAT...LON 47570601 47840329 47310175 45600136 44770222 44560357
44620665 46370753 47570601
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
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