348
ACUS11 KWNS 202153
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 202152
INZ000-ILZ000-202345-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1740
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0452 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL ILLINOIS INTO SOUTHERN INDIANA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 202152Z - 202345Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...A CLUSTER OF STORMS THAT HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED AND
INTENSIFIED IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS MAY POSE SOME RISK FOR DAMAGING
WINDS. IT IS NOT CLEAR HOW FAR THIS CLUSTER WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OR
HOW INTENSE IT WILL BE. A WATCH IS POSSIBLE, BUT IT WILL DEPEND ON
CONVECTIVE TRENDS IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
DISCUSSION...DESPITE LINGERING CLOUD COVER STRONG HEATING SOUTH OF A
STATIONARY FONT ALONG WITH PERHAPS SUBTLE AID FROM A PASSING MCV HAS
PROMOTE STORM DEVELOPMENT IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS. THE STRONGER
EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY, BUT 25-30 KTS SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR MODEST STORM ORGANIZATION. THE
QUESTION REMAINS HOW FAR SOUTHEAST THIS STORM CLUSTER CAN PERSIST.
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S F ALONG WITH MID/UPPER 70S
F DEWPOINTS WILL PROVIDE BUOYANT INFLOW AND THE BOUNDARY WILL
PROVIDE SOME FOCUS FOR PROPAGATION. EVEN WITH THESE POSITIVE
FACTORS, LARGE SCALE ASCENT IS WEAK AS ARE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
THE NEED FOR A WATCH IS NOT IMMEDIATELY CLEAR, BUT CONVECTIVE TRENDS
WILL BE MONITORED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
..WENDT/HART.. 07/20/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX...
LAT...LON 39248935 39558929 39738915 39808844 39648755 39228558
38628571 38328643 38408756 38948900 39248935
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
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