184
ACUS11 KWNS 210037
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 210036
KYZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-210200-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1742
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0736 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SOUTHERN IL/IN INTO NORTHERN KY
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 533...
VALID 210036Z - 210200Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 533
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...DAMAGING WIND AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO REMAIN POSSIBLE
THIS EVENING.
DISCUSSION...A COMPACT BOWING SEGMENT HAS DEVELOPED AND IS MOVING
INTO SOUTHWEST IN AS OF 0030 UTC. THIS BOWING SEGMENT IS MOVING
QUICKLY EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG A SURFACE BOUNDARY AND INSTABILITY
GRADIENT, AND WILL POSE A THREAT OF AT LEAST LOCALIZED WIND DAMAGE
FOR AS LONG AS IT PERSISTS THIS EVENING.
OTHER SEMI-DISCRETE CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED BOTH AHEAD OF THIS
BOWING CLUSTER, AND IN ITS WAKE ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL IL. WITH MLCAPE
OF 1500-2500 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 25-35 KT, ORGANIZED
CONVECTION WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING, INCLUDING
POTENTIAL FOR OCCASIONAL SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. WARM TEMPERATURES
ALOFT AND WEAK MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY TEND TO LIMIT THE MAGNITUDE
OF THE SEVERE THREAT TO SOME EXTENT, BUT LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND AND
PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH ANY PERSISTENT
DISCRETE CELLS. ANY ADDITIONAL UPSCALE-GROWING CLUSTERS COULD POSE A
THREAT FOR MORE CONCENTRATED WIND DAMAGE, THOUGH IN THE ABSENCE OF
STRONGER LOW-LEVEL FLOW, THIS POTENTIAL IS UNCERTAIN.
..DEAN.. 07/21/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...JKL...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX...
LAT...LON 39638955 39298730 38998516 38918419 38498364 38188446
37938546 38108677 38278806 38598936 39178943 39638955
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
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