682
ACUS11 KWNS 210038
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 210038
NEZ000-SDZ000-210145-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1743
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0738 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH-CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA/NORTH-CENTRAL NEBRASKA
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 532...
VALID 210038Z - 210145Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 532 CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...A RELATIVELY FOCUSED POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND A
TORNADO CONTINUES WITH SUPERCELLS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA
AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEBRASKA, CENTERED ON TODD COUNTY, SOUTH DAKOTA
AND EASTERN CHERRY COUNTY, NEBRASKA.
DISCUSSION...AFTER STORM MERGERS, AN INTENSE SUPERCELL WITH HISTORY
OF BASEBALL-SIZE HAIL CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE SOUTH
DAKOTA/NEBRASKA BORDER VICINITY IN TODD COUNTY, SD AS OF 730PM CDT,
APPROXIMATELY 15-20 MILES NORTHWEST OF VALENTINE, NE. CONTINUED
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD STORM PERSISTENCE SEEMS LIKELY INTO CHERRY
COUNTY, POTENTIALLY INCLUDING THE IMMEDIATE VALENTINE VICINITY.
OTHER SEVERE STORMS PERSIST FARTHER SOUTH IN CHERRY COUNTY, WITH
OTHER SPLITTING SUPERCELLS NEAR/NORTH OF I-90 EAST OF PHILLIP, SD.
THE AMBIENT ENVIRONMENT REMAINS RATHER MOIST WITH NEAR 70F SURFACE
DEWPOINTS, WITH SOME STRENGTHENING OF STORM
PROPAGATION/SUSTENANCE-FAVORABLE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WITHIN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER. LARGE HAIL AND SOME TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY
PERSIST FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS AS STORMS/RIGHT-MOVING SUPERCELLS
PERSIST SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD WITHIN THE INSTABILITY AXIS. RECENT
WSR-88D VWP DATA FROM NORTH PLATTE SUBSTANTIATES AT LEAST 150 M2/S2
0-1 KM SRH, WITH SOME ADDITIONAL INCREASE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO.
..GUYER.. 07/21/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...ABR...LBF...UNR...
LAT...LON 44140144 44360089 43420043 42980019 42419976 42100003
42230134 43130138 44140144
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN
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