569
ACUS11 KWNS 210358
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 210358
SDZ000-NDZ000-MTZ000-210530-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1745
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1058 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST MONTANA/SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA/NORTHERN
SOUTH DAKOTA
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 531...534...
VALID 210358Z - 210530Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 531, 534
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...SEVERE WIND/HAIL POTENTIAL CONTINUES THROUGH LATE EVENING
AND POSSIBLY INTO THE OVERNIGHT FROM SOUTHEAST MONTANA ACROSS
SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCHES 531/534 CONTINUE, AND THE SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA/NORTHERN
SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER VICINITY IS BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE
ADDITIONAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.
DISCUSSION...MULTIPLE STORM CLUSTERS WITH A HISTORY OF
SEVERE-CALIBER WINDS AND/OR HAIL PERSIST FROM FAR SOUTHEAST MONTANA
(CARTER COUNTY) TO NEAR THE NORTH DAKOTA/SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER
VICINITY AS OF 1050PM CDT/950PM MDT. STEADY BOUNDARY-LAYER COOLING
HAS OCCURRED OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS, AND STORMS SHOULD INGEST
INCREASINGLY ELEVATED INFLOW OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HOWEVER,
EXISTING STORM ORGANIZATION AND MODEST LOW-LEVEL JET INFLUENCE
SHOULD TEND TO SUSTAIN STORMS EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE REGIONAL
INSTABILITY GRADIENT. AT LEAST SOME SEVERE-CALIBER WIND/HAIL
POTENTIAL WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT, AND POTENTIALLY
INTO AREAS TO THE EAST OF THE CURRENT WATCHES 531/534 ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA.
..GUYER.. 07/21/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...BYZ...
LAT...LON 45740506 46320426 46700255 46780055 45899863 44999936
44950195 45090437 45740506
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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