861
ACUS11 KWNS 212155
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 212155
KSZ000-220000-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1747
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0455 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTH-CENTRAL/NORTHEAST KS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 212155Z - 220000Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...ISOLATED HAIL AND DAMAGING GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL/NORTHEAST KANSAS. LIMITED
SEVERE COVERAGE SHOULD PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A WATCH.
DISCUSSION...STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER
NORTH-CENTRAL KS AMID A LOCALIZED AREA OF STRONG BUOYANCY AND
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR IS WEAK AND OVERALL
STORM MOTION HAS BEEN VERY SLOW. DEEPENING CUMULUS IS ALSO APPARENT
ALONG THE OUTFLOW SOUTHWESTWARD OF THIS STORM. AMPLE BUOYANCY EXISTS
ACROSS THE REGION, SUGGESTING ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT IS
POSSIBLE. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE LIMITED SHEAR AND ANTICIPATED LACK OF
STORM ORGANIZATION, THE OVERALL LONGEVITY OF ANY PARTICULAR UPDRAFT
SHOULD BE LIMITED. EVEN SO, ISOLATED HAIL IS POSSIBLE WITH THE
INITIAL UPDRAFTS. STRONG DOWNBURSTS ARE POSSIBLE AS STORMS COLLAPSE.
FARTHER EAST, OUTFLOW FROM EARLIER STORMS CONTINUES TO PUSH
SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS NORTHEAST KS, WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
70S AND LOW 80S BEHIND IT. THIS SHOULD LIMIT THE INTENSITY OF STORMS
ACROSS NORTHEAST KS. HOWEVER, THE CLUSTER ACROSS WASHINGTON AND
MARSHALL HAS SHOWN SOME TREND TOWARDS FORWARD PROPAGATION RECENTLY,
SUGGESTING SOME DAMAGING GUST ARE POSSIBLE EVEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE
STABILIZING AIRMASS DOWNSTREAM.
..MOSIER/HART.. 07/21/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...EAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...
LAT...LON 39929975 39989583 39029525 38389636 38730027 39929975
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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