836
ACUS11 KWNS 220040
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 220039
KSZ000-OKZ000-220245-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1749
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0739 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/SOUTH-CENTRAL KS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 220039Z - 220245Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND ISOLATED HAIL WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS THIS EVENING.
DISCUSSION...CLUSTER OF INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTH-CENTRAL KS
HAS SHOWN A TREND FOR MORE SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OVER THE LAST 30
MINS OR SO. THE AIRMASS ACROSS CENTRAL KS REMAINS VERY UNSTABLE,
WITH RECENT MESOANALYSIS ESTIMATING MLCAPE OVER 3500 J/KG.
TEMPERATURES IN THIS AREA REMAIN IN THE MID 90S WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS IMPINGING ON THE
NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS WARM, MOIST, AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS.
THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD ACT AS AN EASTERN BOUND FOR ANY ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT, LIKELY RESULTING IN THE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER CONTINUING
TO A FAVOR A MOST SOUTHERLY MOTION (MAYBE EVEN SLIGHTLY
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY).
GIVEN THE WEAK SHEAR ACROSS THE REGION, THE OVERALL SOUTHERLY PUSH
WITHIN THE STORM CLUSTER WILL LIKELY REMAIN DOMINATED BY DOWNDRAFT
SURGES. THESE STORMS ARE VERY TALL, WITH TOPS LIKELY IN THE 55 TO 60
KFT RANGE. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY RECENTLY OBSERVED CLOUD TOP BELOW
-80 DEG C. AS A RESULT, DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY
RISK, WITH SOME ISOLATED HAIL AS A SECONDARY THREAT.
ANOTHER CLUSTER OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS PROGRESSING
EASTWARD ACROSS FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL KS. THIS AIRMASS DOWNSTREAM OF
THESE STORMS IN SIMILAR TO THAT OVER CENTRAL KS, AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR DISCRETE PROPAGATION IS LIKELY AS THE EASTWARD-MOVING OUTFLOW
MOVES INTO THE STRONG BUOYANCY DOWNSTREAM. SOME EVENTUAL INTERACTION
BETWEEN THESE TWO CLUSTERS IS POSSIBLE, ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
OVERALL CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION IS LOW.
CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED AND A WATCH COULD BE ISSUED IF
CONFIDENCE IN CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION AND SEVERE WIND COVERAGE
INCREASES.
..MOSIER/HART.. 07/22/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...
LAT...LON 39449896 39099748 37459602 36919767 37079984 38570027
39449896
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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