292
ACUS02 KWNS 221732
SWODY2
SPC AC 221730
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1230 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2025
VALID 231200Z - 241200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM UPPER
MICHIGAN SOUTHWESTWARD TO NEBRASKA...
..SUMMARY
ORGANIZING CLUSTERS OF STORMS POSING A RISK FOR SEVERE WIND ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY AND UPPER
MIDWEST INTO ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
..SYNOPSIS
AN UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND MID
ATLANTIC ON WEDNESDAY, WITH RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING EAST FROM THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST AS A LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WAVE WILL BRING COOLING ALOFT
FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES, WITH LIFT
FOCUSED NEAR A SURFACE LOW MOVING FROM SOUTHERN MN TOWARD LAKE
SUPERIOR. A COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE LOW,
EXTENDING FROM UPPER MI INTO KS BY 12Z THURSDAY. PERSISTENT
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST 850 MB WINDS ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL AID BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXING AND NORTHWARD TRANSPORT OF MOISTURE TOWARD THE FRONTAL
ZONE. ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL SHEAR MAY DEVELOP NEAR THE WARM FRONT AS IT
MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN WI INTO WESTERN UPPER MI. WELL BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT, VEERING SURFACE WINDS INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS WILL LEAD
TO A DESTABILIZING AIR MASS LATE IN THE DAY.
..UPPER MI TO NE
STORMS ARE FORECAST TO BE ONGOING ALONG OR JUST BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT FROM NORTHERN SD INTO NORTHWEST MN WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH
MINIMAL WIND RISK. AREA OF HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF THE
FRONT AND OUTFLOWS WILL THEN SUPPORT NUMEROUS STORMS ALONG THE
BOUNDARY FROM WESTERN KS/CENTRAL NE NORTHEASTWARD INTO MN/WI/UPPER
MI, WITH ONE OR MORE LINES OR MCSS PRODUCING SEVERE GUSTS. DEPENDING
ON AIR MASS QUALITY NEAR THE WARM FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN WI INTO THE
WESTERN MI UPPER PENINSULA, ENHANCED SRH COULD YIELD A TORNADIC
STORM OR TWO.
..CENTRAL TO NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS
SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS BENEATH MODEST WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL LEAD TO ELONGATED HODOGRAPHS SUFFICIENT TO SUSTAIN
SOUTHEASTWARD-MOVING CELLS CAPABLE OF HAIL. LAPSE RATES ALOFT WILL
NOT BE PARTICULARLY STEEP, BUT WIDELY SCATTERED INSTANCES OF 1.00"
HAIL APPEAR LIKELY FROM EASTERN WY TO THE FRONT RANGE DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.
..JEWELL.. 07/22/2025
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