893
ACUS11 KWNS 222000
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 222000
MTZ000-WYZ000-222200-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1755
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0300 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN WY INTO SOUTHEAST MT
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 222000Z - 222200Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN MONTANA AND NORTHERN WYOMING THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.
DISCUSSION...OCCASIONALLY ROBUST THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MT AND NORTHERN WY. WEAK
INHIBITION REMAINS DOWNSTREAM OVER THE ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS, BUT
ADDITIONAL HEATING AND INCREASING ASCENT SHOULD ALLOW FOR STORMS TO
BECOME SUSTAINED FURTHER FROM THE TERRAIN WITH TIME INTO LATE
AFTERNOON. REGIONAL VWP DATA SHOWS ELONGATED, STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS
AMID STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES. WHILE INSTABILITY IS MUTED DUE TO
THE DRIER, POST-FRONTAL LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS, MLCAPE WILL STILL BE
SUFFICIENT TO SUSTAIN UPDRAFTS. ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS POSING A RISK FOR HAIL (POSSIBLY UP TO 2 INCHES,
ESPECIALLY OVER FAR SOUTHEAST MT) WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED AND A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH MAY BE NEEDED FOR PARTS OF THE DISCUSSION AREA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON.
..LEITMAN/SMITH.. 07/22/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...UNR...BYZ...GGW...RIW...TFX...
LAT...LON 45781046 46181020 46620976 46870927 46890803 46750614
46530494 46260428 46040411 45650405 44750412 44330490
44020652 43980783 43990872 44310889 44910939 45321021
45781046
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
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