084
ACUS11 KWNS 222020
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 222019
SDZ000-NDZ000-222215-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1756
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0319 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHEAST
SOUTH DAKOTA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 222019Z - 222215Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE INTO EARLY
EVENING. HAIL AND STRONG GUSTS MAY OCCUR WITH STRONGER STORMS.
DISCUSSION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON
WITHIN THE POST-OUTFLOW AIRMASS. WHILE EARLY DAY CONVECTION AND
CLOUD COVER HAVE IMPACTED THE AIRMASS TO SOME DEGREE, SOME RECOVERY
IS APPARENT AS TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW
80S AND DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN MAINTAINED IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.
AS A RESULT, CAPPING IS ERODING, AND MLCAPE HAS INCREASED TO
1000-2000 J/KG. ONGOING STORMS MAY BE SOMEWHAT ELEVATED INITIALLY,
BUT COULD BECOME SURFACE-BASED WITH TIME. EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES
GREATER THAN 40 KT AND STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES SUGGESTS ROBUST
UPDRAFTS SUPPORTING ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND STRONG/SEVERE GUSTS WILL
BE POSSIBLE. GIVEN THE INFLUENCE OF OUTFLOW AND MODIFICATION OF THE
AIRMASS FROM MORNING CONVECTION, CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION REMAINS
SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. PORTIONS OF THE AREA MAY EVENTUALLY NEED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH, BUT TIMING AND LOCATION IS UNCERTAIN.
..LEITMAN/SMITH.. 07/22/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS...
LAT...LON 45470046 46749959 47279828 46969709 46309676 45059717
44629788 44339914 44260010 44470063 44770080 45470046
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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