762
ACUS11 KWNS 230027
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 230027
IAZ000-230200-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1757
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0727 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN IOWA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 230027Z - 230200Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT
SUMMARY...ISOLATED STRONG WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY STORMS. THE STRONGEST
STORMS COULD SHOW WEAK LOW-LEVEL ROTATION.
DISCUSSION...AN MCV IN THE MID-MISSOURI VALLEY HAS PROMOTED WIDELY
SCATTERED STORMS IN PARTS OF SOUTHERN IOWA. THESE STORMS MAY PERSIST
INTO MID-EVENING. A VERY MOIST AIRMASS AT THE SURFACE IS SUPPORTING
2500-4000 J/KG MLCAPE. SHEAR REMAINS QUITE MODEST UNDER THE
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE, THOUGH THE MCV HAS CONTRIBUTED TO LOCAL VALUE OF
20-30 KTS. THE MAIN HAZARD WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE LOCALLY
DAMAGING WINDS AS STORMS DEVELOP AND COLLAPSE. KDMX VELOCITY DATA
HAS INDICATED WEAK LOW-LEVEL ROTATION WITH A COUPLE OF THE STRONGER
STORMS. AREA VAD DATA SHOWS VERY WEAK LOW-LEVEL SRH EVEN WITH THE
MCV INFLUENCE. WITH THE 850 MB JET EXPECTED TO INCREASE FARTHER
WEST, THIS SRH IS NOT EXPECTED TO IMPROVE THIS EVENING. AT MOST, A
BRIEF TORNADO COULD OCCUR, THOUGH THIS THREAT IS CONDITIONAL.
..WENDT/HART.. 07/23/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...DVN...DMX...
LAT...LON 41209433 41429432 41829418 42079348 41819187 41349146
40829167 40659204 40609231 40949283 41079390 41209433
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
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