943
ACUS11 KWNS 280248
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 280247
IAZ000-MNZ000-SDZ000-NEZ000-280445-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1818
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0947 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...FAR SOUTHEAST SOUTH
DAKOTA...FAR NORTHERN IOWA
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 548...
VALID 280247Z - 280445Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 548
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO FAR
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA, FAR SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHERN IOWA
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY
THREATS.
DISCUSSION...A BROKEN LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS
CURRENTLY ONGOING FROM NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA EASTWARD ACROSS
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE ONGOING NEAR A SURFACE LOW
IN SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA. TO THE EAST OF THE SURFACE LOW, A MOIST
AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS IS IN PLACE, WITH THE RAP SHOWING MLCAPE
RANGING FROM NEAR 5500 J/KG IN SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA TO AROUND 2500
J/KG IN NORTHEAST IOWA. THE INSTABILITY, ALONG WITH LARGE-SCALE
ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER-LEVEL
JET, IS SUPPORTING CONTINUED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING. IN
ADDITION, THE LATEST WSR-88D VWP AT SIOUX FALLS, SOUTH DAKOTA HAS 40
KNOTS OF 0-6 KM SHEAR, AND THE RAP SUGGESTS THIS IS REPRESENTATIVE
FOR MUCH OF THE AIRMASS TO THE SOUTH OF THE ONGOING CONVECTION. THIS
WILL SUPPORT THREAT FOR WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL WITH THE MORE INTENSE
PARTS OF THE LINE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS, MAINLY OVER SOUTHEAST
SOUTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA WERE THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY
IS PRESENT. AS THE CONVECTION MOVES SOUTHWARD, A GRADUAL DOWNTREND
IN THE SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED DUE TO LESS FAVORABLE STORM MODES,
ESPECIALLY OVER PARTS OF NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST IOWA WHERE THE
RAP SHOWS A LESS SUPPORTIVE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT.
..BROYLES.. 07/28/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...
LAT...LON 43029806 43589819 43989806 44379768 44449717 44269613
44159546 44109396 44319292 44209199 43849141 43439125
43059133 42699166 42499246 42489299 42499466 42589671
42779756 43029806
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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