865
ACUS11 KWNS 292000
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 291959
NEZ000-292200-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1834
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0259 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 291959Z - 292200Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...STRONGEST THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT MAY BECOME FOCUSED
ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHWESTERN INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA THROUGH 4-7 PM
CDT. THIS MAY INCLUDE A FEW EVOLVING SUPERCELL STRUCTURES POSING A
RISK FOR LARGE HAIL, LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS A BRIEF
TORNADO.
DISCUSSION...WITHIN LEE SURFACE TROUGHING ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN
KANSAS AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE HIGH PLAINS, A STRONGLY HEATING
(INCLUDING SURFACE TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 100 F) AND INCREASINGLY
DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER IS BECOMING CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE
CAPE BASED ON LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS. MID-LEVEL INHIBITION IS
GRADUALLY ERODING AND DEEPENING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS EVIDENT,
INCLUDING THE INITIATION OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. AS A
WEAK MID-LEVEL PERTURBATION SHIFTS EAST OF THE FRONT RANGE, MODELS
SUGGEST THAT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT MAY INCREASE EITHER SIDE OF A
REMNANT FRONTAL ZONE WITHIN THE LEE SURFACE TROUGH, WHICH IS
FORECAST TO SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTHEAST OF THE HIGH PLAINS THROUGH EARLY
EVENING.
NEAR THE NOSE OF THE STRONGER PRE-FRONTAL HEATING, NOW DEVELOPING
NORTH AND EAST OF THE MCCOOK NE VICINITY TOWARD AREAS BETWEEN NORTH
PLATTE AND KEARNEY, SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 70S F ARE
CONTRIBUTING TO MODERATE TO LARGE CAPE ALONG AN INITIALLY STALLED
SEGMENT OF THE FRONTAL ZONE, WHERE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE MAY
EVENTUALLY FOCUS STRONGEST THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. ALTHOUGH WIND
FIELDS IN LOWER THROUGH MID-LEVELS ARE RATHER WEAK, EASTERLY
NEAR-SURFACE FLOW VEERING TO NORTHERLY NEAR THE EASTWARD MIGRATING
FRONTAL WAVE (BENEATH SOUTHERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW) MAY CONTRIBUTE TO
SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR INTENSIFYING SUPERCELL STRUCTURES POSING A RISK
FOR SEVERE HAIL AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO. OTHERWISE, STORMS,
PARTICULARLY THOSE FORMING IN THE STRONGLY HEATED PRE-FRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT, MAY POSE A RISK FOR LOCALLY STRONG TO SEVERE SURFACE
GUSTS.
..KERR/SMITH.. 07/29/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...GLD...
LAT...LON 41370111 41600024 41509902 40809880 40069930 40170045
40220138 40670161 41370111
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
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