993
ACUS11 KWNS 292155
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 292155
NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-300030-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1837
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0455 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN COLORADO...NORTHWEST KANSAS...SOUTHWEST AND
CENTRAL NEBRASKA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 292155Z - 300030Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. SEVERE GUSTS AND
HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. THE POTENTIAL SHOULD REMAIN
MARGINAL, AND WATCH ISSUANCE IS NOT EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION...LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A PLUME OF MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING WITHIN THIS PLUME, FROM A
SURFACE LOW IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO NORTHEASTWARD ALONG AND TO THE
WEST OF AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH. MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY
IS ANALYZED BY THE RAP ALONG MUCH OF THIS TROUGH, BUT DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR IS WEAK. THIS IS EVIDENT ON THE GOODLAND AND NORTH PLATTE
WSR-88D VWPS. IN SPITE OF THE WEAK DEEP-LAYER SHEAR, LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ARE VERY STEEP, WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT AN ISOLATED WIND-DAMAGE
AND HAIL THREAT.
..BROYLES/MOSIER.. 07/29/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...
LAT...LON 41849982 41159979 39820014 38610104 37920189 37500280
37340356 37490404 37860436 38360447 38760417 39610303
40460193 41320122 41830093 42070062 42080024 41849982
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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