819
ACUS11 KWNS 300455
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 300455
IAZ000-MOZ000-NEZ000-300700-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1843
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1155 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST NE...WESTERN IA
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 559...560...
VALID 300455Z - 300700Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 559, 560
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE GUSTS REMAINS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST NE AND WESTERN IA.
DISCUSSION...THE MERGER OF TWO SOMEWHAT SEPARATE CONVECTIVE LINES
RESULTING IN COMPLEX CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION ACROSS EASTERN NE AND
WESTERN IA OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO. THE RESULT IS SINGULAR
CONVECTIVE LINE THAT EXTENDS FROM NEAR SLB IN BUENA VISTA COUNTY IA
SOUTHWESTWARD TO ABOUT 40 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HSI IN NUCKOLLS
COUNTY NE. THE OVERALL SYSTEM REMAINS FAIRLY STRONG, WITH COLD CLOUD
TOPS (I.E. -70 TO -75 DEG C) AND HIGH REFLECTIVITY ABOVE 30 KFT.
EVEN SO, THE OUTFLOW HAS SURGED OUT AHEAD OF THE LINE AND THE NUMBER
OF STRONG TO SEVERE GUSTS HAS BEEN GRADUALLY DECREASING. GIVEN THAT
STRONG BUOYANCY REMAINS IN PLACE, THE INTENSITY OF THE CONVECTION
SHOULD CONTINUE TO MODULATE, OCCASIONALLY RESULTING IN STRONG TO
SEVERE GUSTS. MERGERS WITH ANY LEADING CELLS COULD ALSO ACT TO
ENHANCE THE STRONG/SEVERE GUST POTENTIAL.
..MOSIER.. 07/30/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...GID...
LAT...LON 42309606 42619486 42249404 40809431 40529600 40569724
40969766 41659725 42309606
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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