859
ACUS02 KWNS 310602
SWODY2
SPC AC 310600
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0100 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2025
VALID 011200Z - 021200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND THE SOUTHEAST...
..SUMMARY
ISOLATED TO POTENTIALLY SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST ON FRIDAY.
..SYNOPSIS
A WEAK RIDGE, CENTERED ACROSS THE CENTRAL US, WILL REMAIN MOSTLY
STATIONARY THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY. A WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL TRAVERSE THE APEX OF THIS RIDGE AND MOVE ACROSS THE
ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS DURING THE DAY. A TROUGH ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST WILL SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY AND OVER THE ATLANTIC
BY FRIDAY EVENING. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND SHUNT A SURFACE COLD FRONT TO
NEAR THE GULF COAST BY 12Z SATURDAY.
..SOUTHEAST
STRONG INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ON
FRIDAY AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 90S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 60S. SHEAR AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
WEAK, WHICH WILL BE THE PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR TO A GREATER SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT. HOWEVER, WIDESPREAD STORM COVERAGE AMID STRONG
INSTABILITY AND A VERY MOIST (2+ INCH PWAT) ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME WATER-LOADED DOWNDRAFTS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS.
..CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ROCKIES BY EARLY
AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY. MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP EAST OF THE
HIGHER TERRAIN BY THIS TIME AND PROVIDE AMPLE BUOYANCY FOR
STRENGTHENING UPDRAFTS AS THESE STORMS EMERGE INTO THE PLAINS DURING
THE AFTERNOON. MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK, BUT STRONGER
FLOW AROUND 7-8 KM MAY PROVIDE SUFFICIENT SHEAR/VENTING FOR MORE
ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING A FEW POTENTIAL SUPERCELLS. LARGE HAIL
WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS AND
VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES, BUT SOME DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE DEEPLY-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER INDICATED BY
FORECAST SOUNDINGS.
..BENTLEY.. 07/31/2025
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