433
ACUS02 KWNS 311718
SWODY2
SPC AC 311717
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1217 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2025
VALID 011200Z - 021200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE HIGH PLAINS AND OVER THE SOUTHEAST...
..SUMMARY
ISOLATED TO POTENTIALLY SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGHOUT THE HIGH PLAINS AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST ON
FRIDAY. STRONG WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGEST STORMS.
..HIGH PLAINS
AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE ROCKIES WILL REMAIN STATIONARY ON
FRIDAY. SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVE IMPULSES WILL MIGRATE THROUGH MODEST
WESTERLY FLOW WITHIN THE UPPER RIDGE. VERY STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE
RATES ATOP A SEASONALLY MOIST AIRMASS WILL SUPPORT A NARROW CORRIDOR
OF MODERATE TO STRONG DESTABILIZATION FROM NORTHEAST NM INTO WESTERN
SD AND VICINITY. SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW WILL SUPPORT
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. WHILE VERTICAL
SHEAR WILL REMAIN MODEST, INCREASING WINDS ABOVE 500 MB AND
VERTICALLY VEERING LOW-LEVEL WINDS COULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW
SUPERCELLS. LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.
DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING AND STRONG HEATING ALSO WILL RESULT IN
STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE WIND GUSTS
ALSO WILL BE POSSIBLE. HIGHER OUTLOOK PROBABILITIES MAY BE NEEDED IN
SUBSEQUENT OUTLOOKS IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN GREATER STORM
COVERAGE/ORGANIZATION WITHIN THE BROADER MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF
5) AREA.
..SOUTHEAST
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST
ON FRIDAY. STRENGTHENING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES/MIDWEST WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND
MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE GULF COAST. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, A
VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE FROM SOUTHERN NC
INTO SC/GA. THE HIGHEST CONCENTRATION OF THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS IS
EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE SOUTHWARD SURGING WEDGE FRONT FROM SOUTHERN NC
INTO SC/GA. VERTICAL SHEAR AND LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN WEAK, BUT 2+
INCH PW VALUES AMID MODERATE/STRONG INSTABILITY COULD RESULT IN WET
MICROBURSTS. SOME STRONGER FORWARD PROPAGATING CLUSTERS ALSO ARE
POSSIBLE AS THE COLD FRONT INTERACTS WITH THE COLD FRONT NEAR THE
SOUTHEAST NC/SC COASTAL PLAIN.
..LEITMAN.. 07/31/2025
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