598
ACUS03 KWNS 311922
SWODY3
SPC AC 311921
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0221 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2025
VALID 021200Z - 031200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...AND OVER PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHEAST...
..SUMMARY
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE WIND GUSTS
ARE EXPECTED IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS VICINITY ON
SATURDAY. ADDITIONAL STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST.
..CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES WILL FLATTEN ON SATURDAY, WHILE A
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MIGRATES ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS AND INTO THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW
WILL MAINTAIN UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S F DEWPOINTS (PERHAPS MID 60S OVER
PARTS OF WESTERN KS INTO THE OK/TX PANHANDLES). STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL SUPPORT MODERATE TO STRONG DESTABILIZATION AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON. VERTICAL
SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN MODEST, BUT SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED
CELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS AND HAIL.
WITH TIME DURING THE EVENING, SOME FORECAST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
UPSCALE GROWTH COULD OCCUR ACROSS WESTERN KS WITH A SMALL CLUSTER OR
MCS MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO PARTS OF NORTHWEST OK AND THE OK/TX
PANHANDLES. IF THIS OCCURS, DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL MAY INCREASE. IF
CONFIDENCE IN THIS EVOLUTION INCREASES, HIGHER OUTLOOK PROBABILITIES
MAY BE NECESSARY IN SUBSEQUENT OUTLOOKS.
..SOUTHEAST
A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BE LOCATED IN THE VICINITY OF SOUTHERN AL
INTO SOUTHERN GA ON SATURDAY. A SEASONALLY VERY MOIST AND STRONGLY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL EXIST NEAR THE BOUNDARY. WHILE DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WILL BE WEAK, THE BOUNDARY COULD BECOME A FOCUS FOR CLUSTERING
OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. GIVEN PW VALUES GREATER THAN 2 INCHES,
SOME POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR WET MICROBURSTS AND/OR FORWARD
PROPAGATING CLUSTERS ALONG OUTFLOWS PRODUCING SPORADIC/LOCALLY
DAMAGING GUSTS.
..LEITMAN.. 07/31/2025
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