446
ACUS11 KWNS 311936
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 311936
LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-312130-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1853
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0236 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SOUTHWESTERN ARKANSAS INTO NORTHEASTERN
TEXAS AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 311936Z - 312130Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS MAY INCREASE
WITH A CLUSTER OF STORMS SPREADING TOWARD THE ARK-LA-TEX THROUGH 4-5
PM CDT, BEFORE ACTIVITY TENDS TO WEAKEN TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST
OF THE REGION.
DISCUSSION...VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT CONTINUES A GENERAL
SLOW SOUTH/SOUTHWESTWARD PROPAGATION, IN THE PRESENCE OF WEAKLY
SHEARED LIGHT NORTHERLY DEEP-LAYER MEAN FLOW. THE MOST RECENT
FLAREUP SOUTHWEST THROUGH SOUTH OF HOT SPRINGS HAS CONTRIBUTED TO
FURTHER STRENGTHENING OF AN ASSOCIATED COLD POOL, WITH 2-HOURLY
SURFACE PRESSURE RISES IN EXCESS OF 2 MB NOTED IN 19Z OBSERVATIONS
AT ARKADELPHIA AND A 28 DEGREE F DIFFERENTIAL IN TEMPERATURE ACROSS
THE COLD POOL BETWEEN ARKADELPHIA AND TEXARKANA.
AIDED BY LOW-LEVEL UPDRAFT INFLOW OF SEASONABLY HIGH BOUNDARY-LAYER
MOISTURE CONTENT CHARACTERIZED BY LARGE CAPE, RENEWED VIGOROUS
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS ONGOING NEAR/JUST AHEAD OF THE
SOUTHWESTWARD PROPAGATING SEGMENT OF THE OUTFLOW ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN
ARKANSAS, TOWARD TEXARKANA, WITH AN EXPANDING AREA OF NORTHWARD
SPREADING ANVIL-LEVEL PRECIPITATION IN ITS WAKE. AS THIS CONTINUES
THROUGH THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO, IT APPEARS POSSIBLE THAT
NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY REAR INFLOW MAY STRENGTHEN/DESCEND AND POSE
INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE GUSTS ACROSS THE
ARK-LA-TEXAS VICINITY, BEFORE THE STORMS ENCOUNTER MORE STABLE
UPDRAFT INFLOW AND WEAKEN.
..KERR/SMITH.. 07/31/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...
LAT...LON 34399421 33859364 33299285 32979247 32569315 32779412
33269479 33859502 34399421
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
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