010
ACUS02 KWNS 010545
SWODY2
SPC AC 010543
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1243 AM CDT FRI AUG 01 2025
VALID 021200Z - 031200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS...
..SUMMARY
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE WIND GUSTS
ARE EXPECTED IN THE HIGH PLAINS ON SATURDAY. ADDITIONAL STRONG
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST.
..HIGH PLAINS
A MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES ON SATURDAY. AHEAD OF THE RIDGE, MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE
NORTHWESTERLY ACROSS MUCH OF THE HIGH PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE, A
MOIST AIRMASS WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS. MODERATE
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THIS
MOIST AIRMASS BY AFTERNOON. AS SURFACE HEATING TAKES PLACE DURING
THE DAY, SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL INITIATE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES, AND SPREAD EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS. A CLUSTER OR LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
MODEL CONSENSUS ON SATURDAY SUGGESTS THAT THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY
WILL DEVELOP FROM EASTERN COLORADO INTO WESTERN KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA, WITH MLCAPE LIKELY TO PEAK IN THE 2000 TO 3000 J/KG RANGE.
NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS NEAR GOODLAND, KANSAS IN THE EARLY EVENING
HAVE MLCAPE NEAR 2500 J/KG AND 0-6 KM SHEAR AROUND 40 KNOTS. FROM
THE SURFACE TO 700 MB, THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE IS NEARLY DRY
ADIABATIC, AND SURFACE TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREADS ARE AROUND 30
DEGREES F. THIS ENVIRONMENT SHOULD PRODUCE HIGH CLOUD BASES, WITH A
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS. SUPERCELLS AND/OR SHORT
MULTICELL LINE SEGMENTS WILL BE POSSIBLE, AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ROTATING CELLS.
..SOUTHEAST
A MOIST AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES ON
SATURDAY. SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO BE THE LOWER TO MID 70S
F ACROSS SOUTHERN ALABAMA, SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND FLORIDA. LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE IS FORECAST TO BE MAXIMIZED ACROSS THIS SAME AREA. AS
SURFACE HEATING TAKES PLACE, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON. NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT 21Z ACROSS
SOUTHERN GEORGIA HAVE INVERTED-V PROFILES WITH VERY STEEP LAPSE
RATES FROM THE SURFACE TO 850 MB. THIS COULD BE ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH THE STRONGER MULTICELLS DURING THE MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON.
..BROYLES.. 08/01/2025
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