249
ACUS03 KWNS 010713
SWODY3
SPC AC 010712
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0212 AM CDT FRI AUG 01 2025
VALID 031200Z - 041200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE HIGH PLAINS...
..SUMMARY
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND HAIL
WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE HIGH PLAINS.
..HIGH PLAINS
AT MID-LEVELS, FLOW WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY ACROSS MUCH OF THE
HIGH PLAINS ON SUNDAY, AS A RIDGE BECOMES ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. AT THE SURFACE, A MOIST AXIS WILL BE IN PLACE
ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS, WHERE SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL BE MOSTLY IN
THE 60S F. BY AFTERNOON, MODERATE INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THIS MOIST AIRMASS. AS SURFACE HEATING
TAKES PLACE, ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED IN AREAS
WHERE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE BECOMES MAXIMIZED. NEAR THE INSTABILITY
AXIS, THE MODELS ARE FORECASTING MODERATE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND STEEP
LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR AN ISOLATED
SEVERE THREAT, WITH A FEW SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND HAIL POSSIBLE. THESE
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM IN THE AFTERNOON, AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EXITS THE REGION. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE TROUGH SHOULD KEEP ANY
SEVERE THREAT LOCALIZED.
..BROYLES.. 08/01/2025
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