194
ACUS01 KWNS 011250
SWODY1
SPC AC 011249
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0749 AM CDT FRI AUG 01 2025
VALID 011300Z - 021200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WESTERN SD
INTO THE NE PANHANDLE AND NORTHEAST CO...
..SUMMARY
SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE
HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STORMS CAPABLE OF AT LEAST
ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA AND
SURROUNDING PARTS OF NORTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA.
..HIGH PLAINS
EXTENSIVE UPPER RIDGING CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS INTO ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN, WITH SEVERAL LOW-AMPLITUDE
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING EASTWARD/NORTHEASTWARD WITHIN THIS RIDGING.
WESTERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS RIDGING IS
MAINTAINING STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND
EASTWARD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS, WHERE DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE
LOW TO MID 60S THIS AFTERNOON. THIS MODERATE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
BENEATH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT IN MODERATE TO
STRONG BUOYANCY (I.E. MLCAPE 1500-2500 J/KG) BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS COUPLED WITH
OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS WILL RESULT IN INITIAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN, WITH THESE STORMS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
THE MORE MOIST AND BUOYANT AIRMASS DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS.
THE BEST OVERLAP BETWEEN BUOYANCY AND SHEAR IS EXPECTED FROM WESTERN
SD INTO NORTHEAST CO, CONTRIBUTING TO A RELATIVELY GREATER SEVERE
POTENTIAL HERE VERSUS THE REMAINDER OF THE HIGH PLAINS. HIGH CLOUD
BASES AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT STRONG OUTFLOW
ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. HOWEVER, GREATER MID-LEVEL FLOW IS
ANTICIPATED FROM WESTERN SD INTO NORTHEAST CO, WHERE A FEW
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND POTENTIALLY EVEN A BRIEF
TORNADO ARE POSSIBLE.
ONE OTHER AREA OF INTEREST IS ACROSS NORTHWEST SD, WHERE AN MCV
MOVING SLOWLY INTO THE REGION COULD RESULT IN A FOCUSED AREA OF
THUNDERSTORMS. INCREASED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND LOW-LEVEL
VERTICAL SHEAR NEAR THIS MCV COULD LEAD TO A GREATER THREAT FOR ALL
SEVERE HAZARDS, INCLUDING LARGE HAIL AND BRIEF TORNADOES.
..CAROLINAS INTO GEORGIA
A VERY MOIST AIRMASS REMAIN IN PLACES FROM THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE
CAROLINAS. RECENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW 70S DEWPOINTS THROUGH
THIS ENTIRE REGION. RECENT RAOBS AND MESOANALYSIS SHOW NEAR 2 INCH
PW ACROSS GA AND THE CAROLINAS. NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ANTICIPATED AS A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHWARD/SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
THE REGION. OUTFLOW AMALGAMATION MAY RESULT IN SOME STORM
CLUSTERING, AND A LOCALLY GREATER RISK FOR WIND DAMAGE, BUT THE LACK
OF STRONGER VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL UPDRAFT LONGEVITY
AND SEVERITY.
..MOSIER/BENTLEY.. 08/01/2025
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