438
ACUS02 KWNS 011720
SWODY2
SPC AC 011718
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1218 PM CDT FRI AUG 01 2025
VALID 021200Z - 031200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
..SUMMARY
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE WIND GUSTS
ARE EXPECTED IN PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS ON
SATURDAY. ADDITIONAL STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE
SOUTHEAST.
..SYNOPSIS
RIDGING ALOFT WILL PERSIST IN THE WESTERN/CENTRAL CONUS ON SATURDAY.
A FEW SMALLER SHORTWAVE PERTURBATIONS MAY MOVE THROUGH THE ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT IN THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES. WIDELY SCATTERED TO
SCATTERED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. A SURFACE
BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHEAST. SOME OF
THIS ACTIVITY MAY BE STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE.
..CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
A BELT OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES THROUGH THE DAY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY ALSO APPROACH
THE REGION FROM THE GREAT BASIN. WITH A WEAK LEE TROUGH AND SURFACE
SOUTHERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS, EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 40-45 KTS WOULD
SUPPORT SUPERCELLS, AT LEAST INITIALLY. LARGE TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT
SPREADS AT THE SURFACE WILL LIKELY RESULT IN OUTFLOW DOMINANT STORMS
WITH QUICKER CLUSTERING/UPSCALE GROWTH. VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND LONG HODOGRAPHS MAKE LARGE HAIL A POSSIBILITY WITH THESE
INITIALS CELLS. WITH TIME, CELL INTERACTIONS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE A
FEW CLUSTERS THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. A MODEST LOW-LEVEL
JET WILL DEVELOP DURING THE EVENING IN THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.
THIS REGION APPEARS TO HAVE A GREATER POTENTIAL FOR SUSTAINING
STORMS FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST FOR THAT REASON. SEVERE WIND GUSTS
WILL LIKELY BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING.
..SOUTHEAST
ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARY, A WEAK FRONTAL WAVE IS POSSIBLE NEAR THE
ALABAMA/GEORGIA BORDER. THIS, IN COMBINATION WITH HEATING ALONG THE
BOUNDARY, WILL SUPPORT 2500-3000 J/KG MLCAPE BY THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN
THE MID/UPPER 70S F DEWPOINTS AND HIGH PWAT VALUES, SCATTERED STORM
COVERAGE COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED STRONG/DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS.
SHEAR WILL BE QUITE MODEST (AROUND 20 KTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR OR
LESS) AND THE LOCAL SEVERE RISK WILL BE DEPENDENT ON STORM
CLUSTERING.
..WENDT.. 08/01/2025
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