043
ACUS11 KWNS 011907
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 011907
ALZ000-MSZ000-012100-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1862
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0207 PM CDT FRI AUG 01 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI AND WESTERN ALABAMA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 011907Z - 012100Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT
SUMMARY...DAMAGING WINDS ARE BECOMING INCREASINGLY POSSIBLE ACROSS
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI AND FAR WESTERN ALABAMA. HOWEVER, THE OVERALL
MAGNITUDE OF THIS THREAT SHOULD REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY LIMITED TO
PRECLUDE WATCH ISSUANCE.
DISCUSSION...RECENT IMAGERY FROM KGWX AND KDGX SHOWS CONVECTIVE
CLUSTERS DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL MS AS A DIFFUSE COLD FRONT BEGINS
TO IMPINGE ON A MOIST AND UNCAPPED AIR MASS. RECENT RAP AND HRRR
FORECAST SOUNDINGS APPEAR TO BE CAPTURING NEAR-SURFACE
TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT TRENDS WELL, AND SUGGEST MLCAPE VALUES ARE
WITHIN THE 2000-2500 J/KG RANGE WITH THETA-E DEFICITS ON THE ORDER
OF 20-25 K, AND 0-1 KM LAPSE RATES APPROACHING 8 C/KM. THIS
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR STRONG WET DOWNBURSTS,
WHICH WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY AS COLD POOL
AMALGAMATION/UPSCALE GROWTH CONTINUES WITH THE GRADUAL
INTENSIFICATION OF THE EMERGING THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER. SPORADIC
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS (MOST LIKELY WITHIN THE 45-55 MPH RANGE) APPEAR
LIKELY, THOUGH A GUST OR TWO NEAR 60 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THIS
ACTIVITY SPREADS SOUTH/SOUTHEAST THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. VERY WEAK
FLOW ALOFT SAMPLED BY REGIONAL VWPS (GENERALLY 15 KNOTS OR LESS
THROUGH 7 KM) WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR APPRECIABLE STORM
ORGANIZATION AND MORE SUBSTANTIAL PEAK GUSTS, THOUGH ISOLATED
INSTANCES WIND DAMAGE ARE ANTICIPATED.
..MOORE/SMITH.. 08/01/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...MEG...JAN...
LAT...LON 33309046 33698935 34058826 33908768 33628738 33148734
32588746 32238767 32038798 31918858 31918916 31978955
32048988 32189019 32379042 32629053 32859063 32999064
33309046
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
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