538
ACUS03 KWNS 011918
SWODY3
SPC AC 011917
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0217 PM CDT FRI AUG 01 2025
VALID 031200Z - 041200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE HIGH PLAINS...
..SUMMARY
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HIGH
PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY. SOME STORMS MAY PRODUCE LARGE
HAIL AND SEVERE WIND GUSTS.
..SYNOPSIS
RIDGING ALOFT WILL CONTINUE IN SOUTHWEST/GREAT BASIN ON SUNDAY. A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN
GREAT BASIN BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. AN MCV EVOLVING OUT
OF HIGH PLAINS CONVECTION ON SATURDAY APPEARS PROBABLE IN THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. SOME MID-LEVEL FLOW ENHANCEMENT WILL CONTINUE OVER
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES.
..SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO NORTHWEST TEXAS
SOME CONVECTION MAY BE ONGOING EARLY SUNDAY MORNING IN ASSOCIATION
WITH AN MCV. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR THIS ACTIVITY TO
REINTENSIFY AS SURFACE HEATING INCREASES. HOWEVER, MODEL GUIDANCE
HAS BEEN UNIFORM IN DISSIPATING THIS CONVECTION BEFORE THAT OCCURS.
TO ITS WEST, THE LEE TROUGH AND AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL POTENTIALLY
PROMOTE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE
SOUTHWEST RIDGE AMPLIFYING AND THE REGION BEING IN THE WAKE OF THE
EARLIER CONVECTION/MCV, THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW
MUCH CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP. THE ENVIRONMENT, HOWEVER, WILL BE
SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS. 40-50 KTS OF NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR
WOULD RESULT IN SUPERCELLS. LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE GUSTS WOULD BE THE
MAIN THREATS, BUT AUGMENTED LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ALONG THE OUTFLOW COULD
PROMOTE SOME TORNADO RISK. SOME UPSCALE GROWTH WOULD BE EXPECTED BY
EVENING AS A MODEST LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS IN THE PERMIAN
BASIN/SOUTH PLAINS. HIGHER PROBABILITIES MAY BE NEEDED IF CONFIDENCE
INCREASES IN STORM DEVELOPMENT AND COVERAGE.
..CENTRAL INTO NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS
WITH MOISTURE REMAINING UP AGAINST THE TERRAIN, ADDITIONAL STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM EASTERN COLORADO INTO EASTERN
WYOMING AND THE BLACK HILLS. ASIDE FROM THE TERRAIN, THE WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH WILL ALSO SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. SHEAR WILL GENERALLY BE WEAKER IN THESE AREAS, BUT
AROUND 25-30 KTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR COULD PROMOTE A FEW MARGINAL
SUPERCELLS AND MULTICELL CLUSTERS. STORMS MAY NOT REMAIN ORGANIZED
FOR A LONG DURATION AS UPPER-LEVEL FLOW IS WEAK. THE STRONGEST
ACTIVITY COULD PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE WIND GUSTS.
..OREGON
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE TROUGH, SCATTERED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN
CENTRAL OREGON IN THE BLUE MOUNTAINS. THOUGH BUOYANCY WILL BE
LIMITED, ADEQUATE EFFECTIVE SHEAR COULD PROMOTE MARGINALLY ORGANIZED
STORMS. SEVERE WIND GUSTS WOULD BE THE MAIN HAZARD GIVEN INVERTED-V
PROFILES. CONFIDENCE IN THE COVERAGE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IS
TOO LOW FOR HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME.
..WENDT.. 08/01/2025
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