492
ACUS11 KWNS 012150
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 012150
OKZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-012345-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1865
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0450 PM CDT FRI AUG 01 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF EAST-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST COLORADO INTO
NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 012150Z - 012345Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL SPREAD EASTWARD INTO THIS
EVENING, POSING A RISK OF ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY SEVERE
WIND GUSTS. A WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED, THOUGH TRENDS ARE
BEING MONITORED.
DISCUSSION...WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EVOLVING ALONG THE
I-25 CORRIDOR IN EAST-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST CO INTO NORTHEAST NM, WHICH
ARE LIKELY BEING AIDED BY A PASSING UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK EVIDENT
IN WATER-VAPOR IMAGERY AND VWP DATA. WHILE INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL
ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN, STEEP DEEP-LAYER LAPSE RATES AND AN
ELONGATED UPPER-LEVEL HODOGRAPH WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED LARGE HAIL
WITH THE ONGOING HIGH-BASED STORMS AS THEY ADVANCE EASTWARD ACROSS
THE I-25 CORRIDOR. WITH TIME, STORMS WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO AN
INCREASINGLY WARM/MOIST AIR MASS OVER THE CO PLAINS. HERE, HIGHER
SURFACE-BASED BUOYANCY AND AN ELONGATED/STRAIGHT MID/UPPER-LEVEL
HODOGRAPH (AROUND 25-30 KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR) SHOULD FAVOR A COUPLE
LOOSELY ORGANIZED EASTWARD-MOVING CLUSTERS, CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND ISOLATED HAIL. GIVEN THE MODEST DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR, STORMS MAY TEND TO BE OUTFLOW DOMINANT, AND A WATCH IS NOT
CURRENTLY EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..WEINMAN/GLEASON.. 08/01/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ...
LAT...LON 36580581 37090566 37600510 38460497 39100476 39530460
39690434 39650361 39470289 38800263 37020293 35500360
35350407 35310511 35560553 36580581
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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