369
ACUS11 KWNS 012225
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 012225
MTZ000-020030-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1866
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0525 PM CDT FRI AUG 01 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTH-CENTRAL INTO EASTERN MT
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 012225Z - 020030Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...ISOLATED HAIL AND STRONG TO SEVERE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE INTO
THE EARLY EVENING.
DISCUSSION...SCATTERED STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED LATE THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS PARTS OF MT, IN ADVANCE OF A MID/UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
(WITH MULTIPLE EMBEDDED VORTICITY MAXIMA) APPROACHING THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. MODERATE BUOYANCY WILL RESULT IN OCCASIONALLY VIGOROUS
UPDRAFTS, ESPECIALLY NEAR A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL MT,
WHERE MLCAPE HAS INCREASED ABOVE 2000 J/KG PER RECENT MESOANALYSES.
DEEP-LAYER FLOW IS RELATIVELY WEAK ACROSS THE REGION, BUT SOME
VEERING WITH HEIGHT IS SUPPORTING EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 20-25 KT, AND A
FEW STRONGER MULTICELLS AND CLUSTERS MAY EVOLVE WITH TIME. HAIL AND
STRONG TO SEVERE GUSTS COULD ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST STORMS, THOUGH
THE LACK OF STRONGER DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO KEEP THE THREAT
RATHER ISOLATED INTO EARLY EVENING.
..DEAN/GLEASON.. 08/01/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...TFX...
LAT...LON 48271264 48601014 48450783 47760655 45660600 45140646
45010800 45800892 46731077 47261263 48271264
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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