263
ACUS11 KWNS 020054
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 020054
COZ000-020230-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1869
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0754 PM CDT FRI AUG 01 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 020054Z - 020230Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...A LOCALIZED RISK OF SEVERE WIND AND HAIL WILL CONTINUE FOR
ANOTHER HOUR OR SO ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO.
DISCUSSION...TWO FAIRLY PERSISTENT/ORGANIZED CLUSTERS OF SEVERE
STORMS CONTINUE ADVANCING EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CO PLAINS
THIS EVENING -- BOTH GENERALLY FOCUSED ALONG INTERSECTING OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES. RICH BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE (LOWER 60S DEWPOINTS) AND
STEEP DEEP-LAYER LAPSE RATES ARE YIELDING A CORRIDOR OF
WEAK-MODERATE SURFACE-BASED BUOYANCY, WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT THE MAINTENANCE OF THESE STORM CLUSTERS FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR
SO -- ESPECIALLY GIVEN AROUND 30 KT OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR (PER NEARBY
VWP DATA). WHILE THESE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A RISK OF SEVERE
WIND GUSTS AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL IN THE NEAR-TERM, THE OVERALL
RISK STILL APPEARS TOO SPATIALLY/TEMPORALLY LIMITED FOR A WATCH (SEE
DDC 00Z SOUNDING).
..WEINMAN/GLEASON.. 08/02/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU...
LAT...LON 37600334 38480357 38830351 39290315 39380258 39120210
38360218 37590224 37130260 37120295 37600334
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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