437
ACUS01 KWNS 020102
SWODY1
SPC AC 020101
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0801 PM CDT FRI AUG 01 2025
VALID 020100Z - 021200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
..SUMMARY
SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN LIKELY ACROSS PARTS OF THE
HIGH PLAINS THIS EVENING. LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL, A COUPLE OF
TORNADOES, AND SEVERE GUSTS MAY OCCUR.
EARLY EVENING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED BROAD TROUGHING OVER MUCH
OF THE EASTERN US WITH SUBTROPICAL RIDGING AND SEVERAL WEAKER
DISTURBANCES OVER THE WESTERN US. AT THE SURFACE, NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING ALONG AND SOUTH OF A SLOW-MOVING COLD
FRONT FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE SOUTHEAST STATES. TO THE WEST,
THE STALLED FRONT AND SEVERAL MCVS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE FOCUS FOR SEVERE STORM ACTIVITY THROUGH THIS
EVENING.
..NORTHERN ROCKIES
SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS FROM EASTERN MT TO
NORTHEAST WY AND WESTERN SD ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE FOR A FEW HOURS
THIS EVENING. THE STRONGEST OF THESE CLUSTERS IS LOCATED NEAR A
REMNANT MCV NORTHEAST OF THE BLACK HILLS. THE DOWNSTREAM ENVIRONMENT
OVER SD REMAINS BROADLY FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED CLUSTERS AND
SUPERCELLS WITH MODERATE BUOYANCY AND 30-40 KT OF DEEP-LAYER BULK
SHEAR. CAM GUIDANCE AND OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS SHOW A CONTINUED RISK
FOR SEVERE GUSTS AND HAIL INTO THIS EVENING WITH THIS CLUSTER OF
STORMS, AND ANY ADDITIONAL CONVECTION ABLE TO MATURE OFF THE BLACK
HILLS. THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AND INCREASED LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE/SHEAR NEAR THE MCV COULD ALSO PERHAPS SUPPORT A BRIEF
TORNADO OR TWO.
ELSEWHERE, ISOLATED SEVERE GUSTS AND/OR SOME HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY
OCCASIONAL STRONGER STORMS FROM EASTERN MT TO NORTHEAST WY. HOWEVER,
THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING AND WEAKER FORCING SHOULD KEEP THE RISK
ISOLATED AS CONVECTION GRADUALLY WEAKENS THIS EVENING.
..CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF SEVERE STORMS, INCLUDING SUPERCELLS, HAVE
DEVELOPED AND RAPIDLY MATURED ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN WYOMING AND
EASTERN COLORADO. SEASONABLY RICH MOISTURE ALONG THE STALLED
BOUNDARY OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MODERATE
INSTABILITY BENEATH A BELT OF ENHANCED MID-LEVEL WEST/NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW. WITH SUPERCELL WIND PROFILES NEAR THE CHEYENNE RIDGE AND
ADJACENT NORTHEAST CO, LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL REMAINS LIKELY. A
TORNADO OR TWO IS ALSO POSSIBLE AS STORMS MOVE FARTHER
EAST/SOUTHEAST NEAR THE FRONT WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE AND STRONGER
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
THEREAFTER, UPSCALE GROWTH WITH THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD GRADUALLY
TRANSITION TO PRIMARILY A RISK FOR SEVERE GUSTS WITH ORGANIZED
CLUSTERS/LINE SEGMENTS THIS EVENING WITH EASTWARD EXTENT.
..SOUTHEAST
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS HAVE EVOLVED AHEAD OF THE
SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT ACROSS SUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST. MODERATE
BUOYANCY SHOULD GRADUALLY BEGIN TO WANE WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL
HEATING THIS EVENING. HOWEVER, A FEW OF THE STRONGER CLUSTERS ARE
LIKELY TO PERSIST FOR AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER SUNSET, ESPECIALLY WHERE
GREATER STORM COVERAGE EXISTS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN GA AND SC.
ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE BEFORE STORMS GRADUALLY
WEAKEN INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
..LYONS.. 08/02/2025
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page