886
ACUS11 KWNS 020220
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 020219
NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-020345-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1870
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0919 PM CDT FRI AUG 01 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN COLORADO AND FAR SOUTHWESTERN
NEBRASKA
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 564...
VALID 020219Z - 020345Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 564 CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...A LOCALIZED SEVERE RISK WILL CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR
TWO ACROSS PARTS OF TORNADO WATCH 564. A DOWNSTREAM WATCH IS NOT
CURRENTLY EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION...A WELL-ESTABLISHED STORM CLUSTER (WITH RECENT MEASURED
GUSTS UP TO 70 MPH) IS TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD AT AROUND 30 KT ACROSS
FAR NORTHEASTERN CO. A NARROW CORRIDOR OF MODERATELY UNSTABLE INFLOW
(LOWER 60S DEWPOINTS), 30-40 KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR, AND AN
ESTABLISHED 30-35 KT LOW-LEVEL JET (PER VWP DATA) WILL SUPPORT THE
MAINTENANCE OF THESE STORMS WITH SOUTHEASTWARD EXTENT FOR AT LEAST
THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. GIVEN THE CLUSTER STORM MODE, SEVERE WIND
GUSTS CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN, THOUGH A BRIEF TORNADO
CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT -- GIVEN ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPH
CURVATURE ACCOMPANYING THE LOW-LEVEL JET (AROUND 250 M2/S2 EFFECTIVE
SRH) AND MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER.
WHILE THESE STORMS MAY MOVE OUT OF TORNADO WATCH 564, CURRENT
THINKING IS THAT INCREASING NOCTURNAL STATIC STABILITY SHOULD
EVENTUALLY LIMIT THE SEVERE RISK WITH EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD EXTENT.
THEREFORE, A DOWNSTREAM WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED, THOUGH
CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED.
..WEINMAN/GLEASON.. 08/02/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS...
LAT...LON 40740360 41170300 41230248 41020199 40390156 39970181
39740234 39850308 40310362 40740360
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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