457
ACUS11 KWNS 020248
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 020248
SDZ000-WYZ000-020415-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1871
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0948 PM CDT FRI AUG 01 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST WY INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL SD
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 565...
VALID 020248Z - 020415Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 565
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...SOME SEVERE THREAT MAY CONTINUE INTO LATE EVENING.
DISCUSSION...CONVECTION INITIALLY ASSOCIATED WITH AN MCV ACROSS
NORTHWEST SD HAS EVOLVED INTO A FORWARD-PROPAGATING MCS THIS
EVENING. WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS MCS HAVE LARGELY BEEN SUBSEVERE
THUS FAR, THOUGH A STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET CONTINUES TO HELP
MAINTAIN THIS SYSTEM, AND STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE GUSTS REMAIN
POSSIBLE AS IT PROPAGATES SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD. MODERATE BUOYANCY AND
STEEP LAPSE RATES (AS NOTED ON THE 00Z UNR SOUNDING), ALONG WITH A
FAVORABLE WIND PROFILE (AS OBSERVED IN RECENT VWPS FROM KUDX), MAY
ALSO CONTINUE TO SUPPORT AT LEAST TRANSIENT SUPERCELLS ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN FLANK OF THIS SYSTEM, ACCOMPANIED BY A THREAT FOR
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY A BRIEF TORNADO.
FARTHER WEST, A CLUSTER OF STORMS IS MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS FAR
NORTHEAST WY. SOME SHORT-TERM INTENSIFICATION CANNOT BE RULED OUT
WITH THIS CLUSTER, AS IT ENCOUNTERS SOMEWHAT MORE FAVORABLE
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND BUOYANCY WITH EASTWARD EXTENT. EVENTUALLY,
INCREASING CINH SHOULD RESULT IN A GENERAL WEAKENING TREND FOR BOTH
AREAS OF CONVECTION WITHIN WW 565, THOUGH SOME REMNANT OF THE MCS
ACROSS WESTERN SD MAY PERSIST INTO LATE TONIGHT.
..DEAN.. 08/02/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...ABR...UNR...
LAT...LON 44950518 44890315 44750160 45380105 45470061 45410023
44930020 44160000 43680035 43620119 43800254 43760378
43620438 43700472 44100489 44950518
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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