140
ACUS02 KWNS 020553
SWODY2
SPC AC 020551
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1251 AM CDT SAT AUG 02 2025
VALID 031200Z - 041200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
..SUMMARY
THUNDERSTORMS WITH POTENTIAL FOR HAIL AND ISOLATED SEVERE GUSTS WILL
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE HIGH PLAINS ON SUNDAY.
..HIGH PLAINS
A SUBTLE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY, AS NORTHWEST MID-LEVEL FLOW
REMAINS OVER MUCH OF THE HIGH PLAINS. NEAR THE TROUGH, ELEVATED
CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD.
THIS SLOW-MOVING CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE CO-LOCATED WITH A MOIST
AXIS FROM NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA EXTENDING NORTHWARD INTO
EAST-CENTRAL NEBRASKA, AND IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. OUTFLOW FROM THESE STORMS WILL NEGATIVELY IMPACT
DESTABILIZATION. IN SPITE OF THIS, INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP FURTHER TO THE WEST FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE NORTHWARD INTO
WESTERN KANSAS AND WEST-CENTRAL NEBRASKA. NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS
FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO WESTERN KANSAS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON
HAVE MODERATE DEEP-LAYER, MAINLY DUE TO A SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN THE LOW TO MID-LEVELS. IN ADDITION, LOW TO
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE FORECAST TO BE STEEP. THIS COULD BE ENOUGH
FOR ISOLATED SEVERE GUSTS AND HAIL. HOWEVER, THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE STORMS COULD BE DAMPENED BY SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE
EXITING MID-LEVEL TROUGH.
..BROYLES.. 08/02/2025
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