164
ACUS01 KWNS 021233
SWODY1
SPC AC 021232
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0732 AM CDT SAT AUG 02 2025
VALID 021300Z - 031200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
..SUMMARY
SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE WIND GUSTS ARE
EXPECTED IN PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
TODAY/TONIGHT. ADDITIONAL STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHEAST AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.
..CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
EARLY-MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN. THIS SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD WITHIN THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
RIDGE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN AZ/NM, REACHING THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
AROUND 18-21Z. ASCENT ATTENDANT TO THIS WAVE WILL FOSTER CONVECTIVE
INITIATION OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON WHILE THE DEEP
WESTERLY FLOW ENCOURAGES STORMS TO MOVE OFF THE TERRAIN INTO THE
HIGH PLAINS. THE AIRMASS IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM WILL BE WARM AND
DEEPLY MIXED, WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S AND
DEWPOINTS LIKELY IN THE MID 50S. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
HELP PROMOTE MODERATE BUOYANCY WITHIN THIS WARM AND MODESTLY MOIST
ENVIRONMENT, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR A FEW STRONGER STORMS. LARGE
HAIL IS POSSIBLE WITHIN THE EARLY-STAGE CELLULAR DEVELOPMENT,
PARTICULARLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
WHILE IN THIS ENVIRONMENT, STORMS WILL LIKELY TREND TOWARDS A MORE
OUTFLOW DOMINANT STRUCTURE. HOWEVER, GREATER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND
BUOYANCY WILL LIKELY BE IN PLACE FARTHER EAST (FROM THE CO/KS BORDER
VICINITY SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHWEST TX PANHANDLE), WITH SOME
POTENTIAL FOR REINTENSIFICATION OF THE ONGOING STORMS AND/OR NEW
DEVELOPMENT ALONG SURGING OUTFLOWS. RESULTANT CLUSTERING/UPSCALE
GROWTH SHOULD ALLOW FOR ONE OR MORE CLUSTERS WITH A MAINLY DAMAGING
WIND THREAT TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. A MODEST LOW-LEVEL
JET IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE EVENING, FURTHER SUSTAINING
ANY STRONGER CLUSTERS WHILE ALSO ENCOURAGING A MORE
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD MOTION INTO PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN CO/WESTERN KS
AND TX/OK PANHANDLES. DAMAGING GUSTS ARE THE PRIMARY RISK WITHIN
THESE CLUSTERS.
..NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS
GLANCING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AUGMENTING OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS IS
FORECAST TO SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OVER NORTHERN WY AND SOUTHERN
MT. HIGH CLOUD BASES AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL HELP
SUPPORT STRONG DOWNBURSTS WITHIN ANY MORE PERSISTENT CONVECTION.
..SOUTHEAST
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF A WEAKENING COLD FRONT AND
AMPLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL LIKELY
BE MAXIMIZED OVER SOUTHERN AL, SOUTHERN GA, AND FL
PANHANDLE/NORTHERN FL. VERTICAL SHEAR IS VERY WEAK, WITH A PULSE,
MULTICELLULAR STORM MODE ANTICIPATED. HIGH PWATS COULD SUPPORT
OCCASIONAL WET MICROBURSTS AND DAMAGING GUSTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.
..MOSIER/BENTLEY.. 08/02/2025
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