617
FNUS21 KWNS 021714
FWDDY1
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK CORR 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1213 PM CDT SAT AUG 02 2025
VALID 021700Z - 031200Z
CORRECTED FOR CRITICAL TAG
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN/EASTERN UTAH
INTO WESTERN COLORADO...
..SOUTHERN/EASTERN UT INTO NORTHWEST CO
HOT, VERY DRY (MINIMUM RH VALUES OF 5-15%), AND WINDY CONDITIONS
(SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 20 MPH) COUPLED WITH ERCS
EXCEEDING THE 95TH PERCENTILE WILL PROMOTE SEVERAL HOURS OF CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN/EASTERN UTAH INTO NORTHWEST COLORADO. THE FORECAST REMAINS
ON TRACK ACROSS THIS REGION, WITH ONLY MINOR CHANGES NEEDED BASED ON
THE LATEST HIGH-RESOLUTION ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE.
..DRY THUNDERSTORMS - INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AROUND MIDDAY ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST, WITH COVERAGE PEAKING DURING THE MID/LATE
AFTERNOON AND THEN DECREASING THROUGH THE EVENING. WHILE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE, MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN OREGON AND
SOUTHWEST IDAHO, INCREASING PW IN THESE AREAS (0.8-0.9) SUGGEST A
MIX OF WET/DRY THUNDERSTORMS. GUSTY AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS, WITH NEAR SEVERE (50+ MPH)
OUTFLOW GUSTS POSSIBLE (ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
NEVADA AND SOUTHWEST IDAHO). PLEASE SEE THE SPC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE
OUTLOOK FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THE NEARBY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.
PLEASE SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE INFORMATION ON
TODAY'S FIRE WEATHER FORECAST.
..ELLIOTT.. 08/02/2025
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 0158 AM CDT SAT AUG 02 2025/
..SYNOPSIS
ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A LARGE-SCALE RIDGE CENTERED ON THE
SOUTHWEST/NORTHERN MEXICO, A WESTERLY MIDLEVEL JET STREAK WILL
OVERSPREAD THE SOUTHERN/EASTERN GREAT BASIN. IN RESPONSE, A WEAK
SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER EASTERN UT, RESULTING IN A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA.
..SOUTHERN/EASTERN UT INTO NORTHWEST CO
DIURNAL HEATING WILL RESULT IN A DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN/EASTERN GREAT BASIN, WHERE WIDESPREAD SINGLE-DIGIT RH
IS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON. BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING INTO THE
STRENGTHENING FLOW ALOFT, COUPLED WITH AN ENHANCED PRESSURE
GRADIENT, WILL YIELD 20 MPH WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WIND FROM
SOUTHERN/EASTERN UT INTO NORTHWEST CO. THE COMBINATION OF BREEZY
SURFACE WINDS AND LOW RH WILL FAVOR CRITICAL FIRE-WEATHER
CONDITIONS, GIVEN RECEPTIVE FUELS ACROSS THE REGION.
..DRY THUNDERSTORMS - INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
DIURNALLY DRIVEN HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST, AIDED BY WEAK LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT
AHEAD OF A DEAMPLIFYING MIDLEVEL TROUGH. AROUND 0.7 INCH PW AND A
DEEP/DRY BOUNDARY LAYER WILL SUPPORT MOSTLY DRY THUNDERSTORMS,
CAPABLE OF LIGHTNING-INDUCED IGNITIONS OVER ANY RECEPTIVE FUELS.
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
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