063
ACUS02 KWNS 021727
SWODY2
SPC AC 021726
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1226 PM CDT SAT AUG 02 2025
VALID 031200Z - 041200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...CENTRAL/EASTERN OREGON...
..SUMMARY
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING IN PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.
ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE PROBABLE IN CENTRAL/EASTERN
OREGON DURING THE AFTERNOON.
..KANSAS/OKLAHOMA/TEXAS
THOUGH UNCERTAINTY IS HIGHEST WITHIN THESE REGIONS, A CONDITIONALLY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SUPERCELLS IS EXPECTED DURING THE
AFTERNOON. MUCH WILL DEPEND ON THE EVOLUTION OF CONVECTION WITHIN
KANSAS AND THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND WHERE IT WILL BE LOCATED
SUNDAY MORNING. EARLY CONVECTION WITHIN KANSAS IS EXPECTED TO BE
WEAKER, BUT RECOVERY ALONG THE WESTERN FLANK OF ITS OUTFLOW IS
POSSIBLE. A STRONGER SIGNAL EXISTS FOR A CLUSTER/MCS TO BE ONGOING
IN THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THE OUTFLOW FROM THIS ACTIVITY COULD
PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR A CORRIDOR OF GREATER SEVERE RISK DURING THE
AFTERNOON. WITH A VERY STEEP LAPSE RATE PLUME EXTENDING INTO THE
HIGH PLAINS, MLCAPE OF 2500-3000 J/KG IS PROBABLE BY THE AFTERNOON
WITH BUOYANCY DIMINISHING WITH EASTWARD EXTENT. A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH/MCV WILL ENHANCED MID-LEVEL WINDS. EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES OF
35-50 KTS ARE PROBABLE. AS MENTIONED, SUPERCELLS WOULD BE LIKELY
SHOULD STORMS DEVELOP. LARGE HAIL, SEVERE WINDS, AND PERHAPS A
TORNADO (GIVEN AUGMENTED LOW-LEVEL SHEAR NEAR THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY)
WOULD BE POSSIBLE. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THESE AREAS TO BE BETWEEN
TWO SHORTWAVE PERTURBATIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON LEADING TO
UNCERTAIN FORCING. THERE IS ALSO THE UNCERTAIN LOCATION/TIMING OF
EARLY CONVECTION AND ITS SUBSEQUENT IMPACT ON THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
THESE FACTORS PRECLUDE ANY INCREASE IN SEVERE PROBABILITIES.
..CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
A WEAK SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. A
SOUTHWEST-NORTHWEST ORIENTED BOUNDARY WILL EXTEND FROM THIS FEATURE
INTO ADJACENT WYOMING/NEBRASKA. SOME STORMS WILL INITIATE WITHIN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF WYOMING OR THE BLACK HILLS AND MOVE INTO GREATER
SURFACE MOISTURE. ISOLATED SEVERE WINDS AND MARGINAL HAIL ARE
POSSIBLE. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY ITSELF. THOUGH BUOYANCY WILL BE GREATER, SHEAR WILL BE
WEAKER WITH EASTWARD EXTENT. A SIMILAR WIND/HAIL THREAT WILL EXIST
WITH THESE STORMS. SUBTLE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT RISES SHOULD KEEP THE
STRONGEST STORMS ISOLATED.
..OREGON
LOW/MID 40S F DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINTAINED INTO THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS OREGON EAST OF THE CASCADES. WITH THE APPROACH OF
THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH, 25-35 KTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL BE
PRESENT. SCATTERED STORMS WILL INITIATE WITHIN THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AND GENERALLY PROGRESS NORTHEASTWARD. INVERTED-V THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SEMI-ORGANIZED CLUSTERS/LINEAR
SEGMENTS WILL PROMOTE A RISK FOR SEVERE WIND GUSTS. SMALL TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL ALSO MAY OCCUR WITH THE STRONGEST STORM
CORES.
..WENDT.. 08/02/2025
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