137
ACUS03 KWNS 021929
SWODY3
SPC AC 021929
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0229 PM CDT SAT AUG 02 2025
VALID 041200Z - 051200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTHERN ROCKIES
INTO NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...NORTHERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHERN SOUTH
DAKOTA...
..SUMMARY
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO
THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. ADDITIONAL STORMS POSSIBLE IN PARTS OF
NEBRASKA/SOUTH DAKOTA. SEVERE WINDS AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL MAY
OCCUR.
..NORTHERN ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS
A COMPACT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS
FEATURE WILL BE WELL-TIMED WITH PEAK DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR LIKELY WITHIN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
CENTRAL IDAHO INTO SOUTHWEST MONTANA. THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR FOR A
GREATER SEVERE RISK WILL BE THE OVERALL LACK OF MOISTURE. SURFACE
DEWPOINTS MAY ONLY BE IN THE LOW/MID 40S F, THOUGH SOME INCREASE CAN
BE EXPECTED DURING THE EVENING. INVERTED-V PROFILES WILL SUPPORT A
THREAT FOR SEVERE WINDS. GIVEN THE FORCING AND SHEAR, THIS ACTIVITY
WILL SPREAD EASTWARD WITH TIME. EVEN IF STORMS BECOME SLIGHTLY
ELEVATED, SEVERE GUSTS ARE STILL POSSIBLE GIVEN THE RELATIVELY DRY
BOUNDARY LAYER. WIND PROFILES WOULD SUPPORT LARGER HAIL, BUT LACK OF
STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LIMITED MOISTURE SUGGEST ONLY
SMALL TO MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL SHOULD BE EXPECTED.
..NEBRASKA/SOUTH DAKOTA
THE FORECAST FOR THIS AREA REMAINS RATHER UNCERTAIN. THE UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING OVER THE MUCH OF THE PLAINS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THOUGH THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING THE NORTHERN
PLAINS, THIS WILL OCCUR TOWARDS TUESDAY MORNING. UNDERNEATH THE
RIDGE, STRONG HEATING WILL OCCUR. LOW/MID 60S F DEWPOINTS OVER PARTS
OF NEBRASKA/SOUTH DAKOTA WILL SUPPORT 1500-2000 J/KG OF MLCAPE. THE
MECHANISM FOR FORCING WILL LIKELY BE A NEBULOUS THETA-A BOUNDARY
WHERE LOCAL SURFACE HEATING CAN BE MAXIMIZED. IF A STORM OR TWO CAN
DEVELOP, SHEAR WILL IMPROVE BY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. THERE IS A
CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE WINDS.
..WENDT.. 08/02/2025
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