597
ACUS11 KWNS 021936
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021936
OKZ000-NEZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-WYZ000-022130-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1872
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0236 PM CDT SAT AUG 02 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHWEST NE...EASTERN CO...NORTHEAST NM...AND
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE OK/TX PANHANDLES
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 021936Z - 022130Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT
SUMMARY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS. DEVELOPING STORMS WILL POSE A RISK FOR LARGE HAIL
AND SEVERE WIND GUSTS BY LATE AFTERNOON. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS VICINITY BY
21Z.
DISCUSSION...CONVECTION IS INCREASING OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AND WITHIN
LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE/CONFLUENT FLOW FROM NORTHERN NM INTO CO AND WY.
MID/UPPER FLOW HAS INCREASED, WITH 30-40 KT 0-6 KM SHEAR NOTED IN
LATEST MESOANALYSIS AND REGIONAL 88-D VWP DATA. BACKING
SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS ARE MAINTAINING LOW TO MID 60S F
DEWPOINTS ACROSS WESTERN KS INTO FAR EASTERN CO, WITH LOWER
DEWPOINTS INTO THE 50S F ELSEWHERE. STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WERE
NOTED IN MORNING RAOBS AND LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS, SUPPORTING
ONGOING MODERATE DESTABILIZATION AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO
WARM UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
INITIAL CONVECTION MOVING OFF HIGHER TERRAIN WILL LIKELY REMAIN
CELLULAR AMID ELONGATED/STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS. THERMODYNAMIC AND
KINEMATIC PROFILES WILL SUPPORT LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL, POSSIBLY WITH
A FEW HAIL STONES UP TO 3.0 INCH DIAMETER. STRONG HEATING AND
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING, WITH WEAKER LOW-LEVEL FLOW EVIDENT IN VWP
DATA AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS, ALSO WILL SUPPORT STRONG/SEVERE GUSTS.
AS CONVECTION SHIFTS EAST WITH TIME TOWARD THE CO/KS BORDER
VICINITY, CLUSTERING/LINEAR DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED LATER THIS
EVENING AMID A STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET WITHIN THE AXIS OF DEEPER
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE. DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE AS
THIS OCCURS.
..LEITMAN/SMITH.. 08/02/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...LBF...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...CYS...ABQ...
LAT...LON 36800435 38820446 40510442 41300429 41520387 41610334
41480291 41050235 40320201 39520191 36780195 35990209
35480297 35670369 36140413 36800435
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN
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