444
ACUS11 KWNS 030403
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 030403
OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-030530-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1875
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1103 PM CDT SAT AUG 02 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...WESTERN KS...NORTHWEST OK...TX/OK PANHANDLES...FAR
NORTHEAST NM...FAR SOUTHEAST CO
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 566...567...
VALID 030403Z - 030530Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 566, 567
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...SOME THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE GUSTS AND HAIL MAY
PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
DISCUSSION...ORGANIZED UPSCALE GROWTH HAS NOT OCCURRED THUS FAR WITH
ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. INSTEAD, THERE HAS BEEN A
TENDENCY FOR DEVELOPMENT AND MAINTENANCE OF DISCRETE OR EMBEDDED
SUPERCELLS. STEEP LAPSE RATES, MODERATE BUOYANCY, AND 40+ KT OF
EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND
LOCALIZED STRONG TO SEVERE GUSTS IN THE SHORT TERM. A TORNADO ALSO
CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH THE ONGOING SUPERCELLS IN SOUTHWEST KS.
A STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET (AS OBSERVED IN RECENT VWPS FROM KAMA
AND KDDC) MAY STILL SUPPORT SOME UPSCALE GROWTH WITH TIME INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH INCREASING CINH AND SOMEWHAT WEAKER MIDLEVEL
LAPSE RATES DOWNSTREAM, THE SEVERITY OF ANY UPSCALE-GROWING CLUSTER
REMAINS UNCERTAIN. EVEN IF AN ORGANIZED MCS DOES NOT DEVELOP, A
CLUSTER OF STORMS WITH EMBEDDED STRONGER CELLS MAY STILL SPREAD
SOUTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT, WITH SOME THREAT OF HAIL AND STRONG TO
SEVERE GUSTS. NEW WATCH ISSUANCE INTO PARTS OF THE TX/OK PANHANDLES
IS PROBABLE BEFORE 05Z.
..DEAN/GLEASON.. 08/03/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...OUN...GID...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...ABQ...
LAT...LON 35840329 37060297 38230232 39590152 39850108 39880042
39820001 39689944 37749905 36879917 36409934 35460016
35160176 35220299 35840329
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
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