586
ACUS02 KWNS 030600
SWODY2
SPC AC 030559
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1259 AM CDT SUN AUG 03 2025
VALID 041200Z - 051200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS...
..SUMMARY
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH SEVERE GUSTS AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE
ON MONDAY FROM PARTS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE DAKOTAS AND
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
..NORTHERN ROCKIES/NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS
A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON MONDAY. AT THE SURFACE, A COLD FRONT WILL
ADVANCE EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES, AS UPSLOPE EASTERLY FLOW
REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM,
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON NEAR THE
FRONT, AND IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THESE
STORMS WILL LIKELY INCREASE IN COVERAGE BY EARLY EVENING, MOVING
EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. SURFACE DEWPOINTS ACROSS
MUCH CENTRAL AND EASTERN MONTANA ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S
AND LOWER 50S F, WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK
INSTABILITY BY AFTERNOON. NEAR THE FORECAST POCKET OF INSTABILITY,
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT 0-6 KM SHEAR WILL BE IN THE 30 TO 40
KNOT RANGE. THIS, COMBINED WITH STEEP LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
NEAR 8 C/KM, WILL LIKELY SUPPORT AN LOCALIZED SEVERE THREAT. THE
STRONGER ROTATING CELLS COULD PRODUCE HAIL. ISOLATED SEVERE GUSTS
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE, MAINLY WITH SHORT LINE SEGMENTS THAT HAVE
SOME ORGANIZATION.
..CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS
A MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES ON MONDAY, AS
A TROUGH REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA. AT THE
SURFACE, A NORTH-TO-SOUTH CORRIDOR OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S F, WILL BE IN PLACE FROM CENTRAL KANSAS
NORTHWARD INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. MODERATE INSTABILITY IS FORECAST
TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THIS MOIST AIRMASS, FROM
WESTERN NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. AS
DESTABILIZATION TAKES PLACE DURING THE DAY, ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE, MAINLY IN AREAS WHERE LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE BECOMES MAXIMIZED. ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION, 0-6 KM
SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE IN THE 35 TO 45 KNOT RANGE. THIS WILL
SUPPORT AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR SEVERE GUSTS. HAIL WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE IN THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS, WHERE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
FORECAST TO BE STEEP.
..BROYLES.. 08/03/2025
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