571
ACUS01 KWNS 031251
SWODY1
SPC AC 031249
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0749 AM CDT SUN AUG 03 2025
VALID 031300Z - 041200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
..SUMMARY
LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS. ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE PROBABLE IN THE
NORTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON.
..SOUTHERN PLAINS
A DECAYING MCS IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN TX PANHANDLE
AND WESTERN OK. EXPECTATION IS FOR THIS SYSTEM TO CONTINUE
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WHILE GRADUALLY
WEAKENING. COOL OUTFLOW AND CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE SEVERE POTENTIAL ACROSS THE REGION TODAY,
LEADING TO ABOVE-AVERAGE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE OVERALL
CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION.
THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT FROM THE TX PANHANDLE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
SOUTH PLAINS AND EASTWARD INTO WESTERN OK AND NORTHWEST TX WILL BE
CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT, STEEP MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES, AND AFTERNOON SURFACE DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM THE UPPER
50S TO UPPER 60S. THESE CONDITIONS WILL SUPPORT MODERATE TO STRONG
BUOYANCY ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION, BUT AREAS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE MCS'S OUTFLOW AND/OR CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY REMAIN CAPPED DUE
TO LIMITED/FILTERED DIURNAL HEATING. CURRENT EXPECTATION IS FOR THE
TX SOUTH PLAINS AND PERMIAN BASIN TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE OUTFLOW,
ALLOWING FOR STRONG HEATING AND AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION. THE OUTFLOW
IS EXPECTED TO ACT AS THE PRIMARY IMPETUS FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION
ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL AREAS OF LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE NEAR A WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHEAST NM AND THE WEAK
LEE TROUGHING EXTENDING FROM SOUTHEAST CO ACROSS EASTERN NM COULD
RESULT IN A FEW STORMS AS WELL.
LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW VEERING TO NORTHWESTERLY IN
THE MID LEVELS WILL RESULT IN MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR, WITH THE
OVERALL WIND PROFILE QUITE SUPPORTIVE FOR LARGE HAIL. AS SUCH, THERE
IS A CONDITIONAL RISK FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE TO VERY LARGE
HAIL. WITH TIME, SOME UPSCALE GROWTH INTO ONE OR MORE LINEAR
CLUSTERS WITH AN INCREASED RISK FOR DAMAGING GUSTS IS POSSIBLE.
..CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
FROM NORTHEAST CO INTO SOUTHWEST SD. A LOW IS EXPECTED DEVELOP
WITHIN THIS REGION BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON, AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
IN THE VICINITY OF THIS LOW WILL LIKELY RESULT IN THUNDERSTORM
INITIATION. LATE AFTERNOON INITIATION IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE WEAK LEE
TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN WY AS WELL. MODERATE BUOYANCY WILL SUPPORT
STRONG UPDRAFTS, BUT VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE WEAK, LIMITING
STORM ORGANIZATION AND LONGEVITY. ISOLATED HAIL AND DAMAGING GUSTS
ARE POSSIBLE, PARTICULARLY WITH ANY FORWARD-PROPAGATING CLUSTERS
THAT CAN DEVELOP.
..NORTHWEST
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OFF THE NORTHERN CA COAST IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE NORTHEASTWARD TODAY, WITH LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
IMPINGING ON THE REGION BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON. INCREASING MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE (ALREADY APPARENT ON THE 12Z BOI SOUNDING) WILL HELP
SUPPORT MODERATE BUOYANCY AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A BELT OF STRONGER
MID-LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL INCREASE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
TO 30-40 KT, SUPPORTING SOME STORM ORGANIZATION. STEEP LAPSE RATES
WITH INVERTED-V THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
HIGH-BASED SEMI-ORGANIZED CLUSTERS WILL FAVOR STRONG DOWNDRAFTS
CAPABLE OF OCCASIONAL SEVERE GUSTS WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. SMALL
HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY MORE PERSISTENT CLUSTERS OR WEAK
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES DESPITE THE LIMITED BUOYANCY.
..MOSIER/BENTLEY.. 08/03/2025
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