697
ACUS01 KWNS 031949
SWODY1
SPC AC 031947
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0247 PM CDT SUN AUG 03 2025
VALID 032000Z - 041200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
..SUMMARY
LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING OVER PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.
..20Z UPDATE
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH NO CHANGES REQUIRED.
LATEST GOES IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW GRADUAL CLEARING
AND WARMING ACROSS THE TX/OK PANHANDLES IN THE WAKE OF PRIOR
CONVECTION. AN 18Z AMA SOUNDING SAMPLED THE EASTERN FRINGE OF AN
EML/STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND 30-40 KNOT MID-LEVEL FLOW, BUT
SHOWED SUBSTANTIAL LOW/MID-LEVEL INHIBITION EVEN WHEN ADJUSTING FOR
RECENT TEMPERATURE TRENDS. THIS CONTINUES TO CAST UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS,
THOUGH RECENT CAM SOLUTIONS MAINTAIN THAT AT LEAST A FEW CELLS
AND/OR CLUSTERS WILL MIGRATE ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA LATER
TODAY/TONIGHT. FURTHER NORTH, EARLY SIGNS OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
ARE NOTED ACROSS NORTHWEST KS INTO WESTERN NE/SD WHERE STRONGER
HEATING SHOULD FOSTER THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT, THOUGH WEAKER
FORCING FOR ASCENT AND DEEP-LAYER WIND SHEAR SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL
STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT
RECENTLY MOVED THROUGH THE DALLAS/FORT-WORTH METRO AREA HAS SHOWN
SIGNS OF WEAKENING PER GOES IR AND MRMS IMAGERY. THIS TREND IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS STORMS MIGRATE INTO A MORE WEAKLY SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT DOWNSTREAM. SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW FOR
ADDITIONAL DETAILS AS WELL AS MCD #1877 FOR SHORT-TERM DETAILS
PERTAINING TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SEVERE RISK.
..MOORE.. 08/03/2025
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 1129 AM CDT SUN AUG 03 2025/
..SOUTHERN PLAINS
LATE MORNING RADAR/SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SUB-SEVERE, DECAYING
MCS OVER THE TX-OK RED RIVER VALLEY. INCIPIENT OUTFLOW AND CLOUD
COVER HAS CAST CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY ON STORM COVERAGE LATE
TODAY/TONIGHT ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE OUTLOOK AREA IN THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. IT SEEMS LIKELY BASED ON MIDDAY OBSERVATIONAL
TRENDS THAT A REDUCTION IN SEVERE PROBABILITIES IS WARRANTED ACROSS
PARTS OF EASTERN OK INTO NORTHEAST TX. THE AIRMASS SAMPLED WITHIN
WAKE OF THE STRONGEST INFLUENCE OF THE COLD POOL BY THE 12 UTC DODGE
CITY, KS RAOB SHOWED MEAGER BUOYANCY. AS A RESULT, A WESTWARD SHIFT
OF SOME OF THE SEVERE PROBABILITIES WAS DONE FOR THIS OUTLOOK
UPDATE.
AN UPSTREAM DISTURBANCE OVER NORTHWEST KS IS FORECAST TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL OK BY LATE THIS EVENING. STRONG HEATING WILL
LIKELY FOCUS NEAR THE NM/TX NORTH-SOUTH BORDER INTO SOUTHEAST CO.
MODELS SHOW ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING OVER THE TX SOUTH PLAINS INTO SOUTHEAST
CO. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES COUPLED WITH VEERING/STRENGTHENING
WINDS WITH HEIGHT WILL SUPPORT A SUPERCELL RISK. LARGE TO VERY
LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE. THERE IS SOME INDICATION IN THE MODELS THAT
A CLUSTER MAY EVOLVE DURING THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF
WEST/NORTHWEST TX AND A LINGERING HAIL/WIND THREAT COULD CONTINUE
WITH THIS ACTIVITY. MODELS STILL SHOW SOME POSSIBILITY FOR ELEVATED
STORMS FARTHER EAST IN THE RED RIVER VALLEY REGION DURING THE
OVERNIGHT. MARGINAL HAIL/WIND COULD ACCOMPANY THIS ACTIVITY.
..CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
NO CHANGE WAS MADE TO THIS PORTION OF THE OUTLOOK AND PREVIOUS
FORECAST THINKING SUPPORTING A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1/5) SEEMS
APPROPRIATE. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATER
THIS AFTERNOON NEAR A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE/LEE TROUGH.
MODERATE BUOYANCY WILL SUPPORT A FEW VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS, BUT VERTICAL
SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE WEAK, THEREBY LIMITING STORM ORGANIZATION
AND LONGEVITY. ISOLATED HAIL AND SEVERE WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.
..NORTHWEST
A MID-LEVEL TROUGH EVIDENT IN MORNING WATER-VAPOR IMAGERY WEST OF
THE CA/OR COAST WILL CONTINUE MIGRATING EAST INTO NORTHERN CA/OR BY
TONIGHT. ADEQUATE MOISTURE AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES COUPLED
WITH ASCENT WILL FACILITATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIDELY SCATTERED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. MODEST DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
WILL PROBABLY SUPPORT SOME ORGANIZATION TO CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW AS
STORMS AND ESPECIALLY OUTFLOW INCREASE IN COVERAGE BY EARLY THIS
EVENING. EVAPORATIVELY COOLED DOWNDRAFTS AND OUTFLOW WILL
POTENTIALLY YIELD A RISK FOR SEVERE GUSTS.
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