526
ACUS11 KWNS 032036
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 032036
OKZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-032230-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1878
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0336 PM CDT SUN AUG 03 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST NM INTO THE OK/TX PANHANDLES
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 032036Z - 032230Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP SOUTHEAST FROM
NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. A FEW INSTANCES OF LARGE HAIL AND STRONG/SEVERE GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON
WITHIN LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE/UPSLOPE. STRONG HEATING HAS ALLOWED
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S F BEHIND MORNING
CONVECTION AND OUTFLOW. SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS HAVE
MAINTAINED MID-60S F DEWPOINTS BENEATH STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES.
THIS IS FOSTERING MODERATE DESTABILIZATION, WITH 1000-2000 J/KG
MLCAPE NOTED IN 20Z MESOANALYSIS. VERTICALLY VEERING WINDS PROFILES,
WITH INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS CONTRIBUTING TO FAIRLY
ROBUST SHEAR, WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES GREATER THAN 40 KTS
APPARENT IN REGIONAL VWP AND MESOANALYSIS DATA. THIS ENVIRONMENT
WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED CELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND
STRONG/SEVERE GUSTS. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE REMAINS UNCERTAIN, BUT
COULD INCREASE WITH SOUTHWARD EXTENT TOWARD EVENING. THIS AREA IS
BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ISSUANCE.
..LEITMAN/SMITH.. 08/03/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...ABQ...
LAT...LON 36710365 36850327 36890267 36840208 36510162 35960137
35480144 34880158 34590192 34330246 34500305 34900334
36290379 36710365
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
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