448
ACUS11 KWNS 032144
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 032144
SDZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-032345-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1880
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0444 PM CDT SUN AUG 03 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF WESTERN/CENTRAL NE...FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL
SD...AND FAR NORTHEAST CO
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 032144Z - 032345Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...SPORADIC SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. A WATCH ISSUANCE IS NOT
CURRENTLY EXPECTED, THOUGH CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED.
DISCUSSION...A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED
ALONG/IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY/WIND SHIFT IN
WESTERN/CENTRAL NE, WITH ADDITIONAL CELLS DEVELOPING FARTHER NORTH
ALONG THE BOUNDARY INTO FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL SD. DIURNAL
HEATING/DESTABILIZATION OF A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER (AROUND MIDDLE 60S
DEWPOINTS) AND STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO
MODERATE SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY. GIVEN THE MESOSCALE FOCUS FOR
STORMS AND FAVORABLE BUOYANCY, SPORADIC SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STORMS EVOLVING
ALONG/SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. HOWEVER, WITH WEAK LARGE-SCALE FORCING
FOR ASCENT AND ONLY MODEST DEEP-LAYER FLOW/SHEAR (AROUND 25 KT OF
0-6 KM SHEAR PER LNX VWP), THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN
FAIRLY DISORGANIZED/SPORADIC. THEREFORE, A WATCH ISSUANCE IS NOT
CURRENTLY EXPECTED, THOUGH CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED.
..WEINMAN/GLEASON.. 08/03/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...GID...LBF...UNR...GLD...BOU...CYS...
LAT...LON 41450232 41880160 42150104 42530042 43509962 43709932
43609872 43159839 42679852 41639911 41109971 40490070
40300186 40400262 40770312 41110315 41450232
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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