839
ACUS11 KWNS 040441
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 040441
OKZ000-TXZ000-040615-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1883
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1141 PM CDT SUN AUG 03 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SOUTHWEST/CENTRAL OK INTO FAR NORTH TX
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 570...
VALID 040441Z - 040615Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 570
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...A THREAT FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE GUSTS AND LOCALIZED
HAIL MAY CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS.
DISCUSSION...AN MCS IS PROPAGATING SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD CENTRAL OK
AS OF 0430 UTC. MEASURED GUSTS OVER THE LAST HOUR HAVE GENERALLY
BEEN IN THE 45-55 MPH RANGE, BUT THIS SYSTEM HAS A WELL-DEFINED COLD
POOL AND COULD CONTINUE TO POSE A SHORT-TERM THREAT FOR STRONG TO
LOCALLY SEVERE GUSTS. MODERATE BUOYANCY AND FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR COULD ALSO SUPPORT AN ISOLATED HAIL THREAT WITH ANY VIGOROUS
UPDRAFT DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE GUST FRONT.
RECENT OBJECTIVE ANALYSES DEPICT RELATIVELY WEAKER MLCINH AND
STRONGER INSTABILITY TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THIS SYSTEM, WHICH MAY
ALLOW IT TO CONTINUE MOVING TOWARD SOUTHERN/CENTRAL OK INTO THE
EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER, SOMEWHAT WEAKER DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
WITH EASTWARD EXTENT AND THE LACK OF A STRONGER NOCTURNAL LOW-LEVEL
JET MAY TEND TO LIMIT THE ORGANIZATION OF THIS SYSTEM WITH TIME.
THE REMAINING SEVERE THREAT MAY REMAIN RATHER ISOLATED, BUT TRENDS
WILL BE CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED REGARDING THE NEED FOR ANY LOCAL
WATCH EXPANSION OR NEW WATCH ISSUANCE.
..DEAN.. 08/04/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...
LAT...LON 35189929 35639862 36449836 36439765 35649648 34669657
33629705 33739840 34509937 34819943 35189929
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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