840
ACUS02 KWNS 050557
SWODY2
SPC AC 050555
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1255 AM CDT TUE AUG 05 2025
VALID 061200Z - 071200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTH-CENTRAL U.S....
..SUMMARY
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH SEVERE GUSTS AND HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL U.S. ON WEDNESDAY.
..CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
AN ANTICYCLONIC MID-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WITH RISING HEIGHTS WILL BE
IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL U.S. ON WEDNESDAY, WITH PRIMARILY
WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE, A MOIST
AIRMASS WILL BE LOCATED FROM NEBRASKA INTO THE DAKOTAS. ALONG THE
EASTERN EDGE OF THIS MOIST AIRMASS, ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR
LIKELY TO BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. THESE STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AS
MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY DEVELOPS FURTHER TO THE WEST.
CONVECTION MAY INITIATE DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF THIS
UNSTABLE AIRMASS, WHERE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS SUFFICIENT.
HOWEVER, CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL LIKELY REMAIN VERY ISOLATED, DUE
TO A LACK OF LARGE-SCALE ASCENT. ANY CELL THAT CAN DEVELOP INTO A
THUNDERSTORM AND PERSIST COULD HAVE A SEVERE THREAT, DUE TO THE
INSTABILITY, MODERATE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND STEEP LOW TO MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES. HAIL AND ISOLATED SEVERE GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
THREATS. FOR THIS OUTLOOK, WILL MAINTAIN A MARGINAL RISK DUE TO THE
CONDITIONALITY OF THE FORECAST, AND DUE TO THE EXPECTED ISOLATED
NATURE OF THE THREAT.
..BROYLES.. 08/05/2025
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