088
ACUS11 KWNS 050759
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 050758
SDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-050930-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1889
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0258 AM CDT TUE AUG 05 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SOUTHEAST MONTANA...FAR NORTHEAST WYOMING AND
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 050758Z - 050930Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...ISOLATED LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MONTANA, NORTHEAST WYOMING, AND WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA.
DISCUSSION...THE LOW-LEVEL JET HAS STRENGTHENED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER
THE PAST HOUR ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA (NOW APPROACHING 40 KNOTS
ON THE KUDX VWP). AS A RESULT, ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED
IN COVERAGE ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND FAR SOUTHEAST MONTANA.
AN ENVIRONMENT FEATURING 30 TO 40 KNOTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR, 2000 TO
2500 J/KG MUCAPE, AND SUPPORT FROM THE LOW-LEVEL JET MAY RESULT IN A
FEW ELEVATED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRIMARILY LARGE HAIL EARLY THIS
MORNING. IN ADDITION, A MATURE MCS HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MONTANA. AS THIS MCS ADVANCES EAST, AT LEAST SOME SEVERE WIND
POTENTIAL COULD EXIST IF A MORE CONSOLIDATED/FASTER MOVING SEGMENT
CAN EMERGE FROM THIS MCS. AT THIS TIME, THE STRONGER STORM IN POWDER
RIVER, MONTANA WOULD LIKELY HAVE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR THIS
SOLUTION AS IT MOVES EAST-SOUTHEAST ALONG THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT
EARLY THIS MORNING. GIVEN THE ISOLATED NATURE OF THE THREAT, A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS UNLIKELY.
..BENTLEY/MOSIER.. 08/05/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...UNR...BYZ...
LAT...LON 44850523 45120566 45320572 45520561 45690440 45650320
45280185 44810143 44080122 43310115 43000191 43020270
43150354 44010408 44590467 44850523
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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